Zuora (ZUO) reported earnings on Wed 2 Sept 20 (a/h)

 ** charts before earnings **

 

** charts after earnings **

 

** 6 weeks later **

Zuora beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides OctQ EPS in-line, revs below consensus

Reports Q2 (Jul) net of breakeven, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.07); revenues rose 7.5% year/year to $74.99 mln vs the $73.47 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

Co issues guidance for Q3 (Oct), sees EPS of $(0.05)-(0.04), excluding non-recurring items, vs. ($0.05) S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q3 revs of $73-75 mln vs. $75.55 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

Iron Mountain (IRM) acquires IO Data Centers’ US operations for $1.3 billion

IO Data Centers, LLC

• io.com
• Founded: 2007

 

Iron Mountain to acquire the US operations of IO Data Centers for $1.315 billion plus up to $60 million based on future performance; expected to close in early 2018 and be accretive to 2019 AFFO 

• Co has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the U.S. operations of IO Data Centers LLC, a leading colocation data center services provider based in Phoenix, Arizona, for $1.315 billion plus up to $60 million based on future performance and subject to customary adjustments. With the transaction, Iron Mountain will acquire the land and buildings associated with four state-of-the-art data centers in Phoenix and Scottsdale, Arizona; Edison, New Jersey; and Columbus, Ohio. The existing data center space in the four owned facilities totals 728,000 square feet, providing 62 megawatts (MW) of capacity with expansion potential of an additional 77 MW in Arizona and New Jersey. This agreement follows the acquisition of FORTRUST data center on September 1, 2017 and the announcement of Iron Mountain's international data center expansion through the planned acquisition of two Credit Suisse data centers in the London and Singapore markets. Upon closing of the Credit Suisse and IO transactions in early 2018, Iron Mountain's data center portfolio will total more than 90 MW of existing capacity, with an additional 26 MW of capacity currently under construction and planned and future expansion potential of another 135 MW.
• Transaction Economics: The transaction is anticipated to close in January 2018, subject to satisfaction of customary closing conditions. The total consideration of $1.315 billion, which does not include up to $60 million of potential additional payments, represents a multiple of 15x synergized 2018 EBITDA, post integration. While data center acquisitions of this magnitude were not part of the company's previously disclosed 2020 plan, the company expects the transaction to accelerate its revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth. Following this transaction and anticipated financing, the company remains on track to reduce its lease adjusted leverage ratio to approximately 5x, and lower its dividend payout as a percentage of Adjusted Funds From Operations to 70-75%, assuming annual dividend per share growth of approximately 4%, all of which are consistent with its 2020 plan. The acquisition is expected to be modestly accretive to AFFO in 2019. The company will provide specifics of the impact of the transaction on 2018 full-year expectations when it provides guidance for next year on its fourth quarter/year-end reporting conference call in February 2018.

Iron Mountain also commenced an underwritten public offering of 14,500,000 shares of its common stock 
The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering, together with the proceeds from a new senior unsecured debt financing, to finance the purchase price of the acquisition of IO Data Centers.

Vitamin Shoppe (VSI) reported earnings on Wed 10 May 2017 (b/o)

** charts before  earnings **

 

** charts after earnings **

Vitamin Shoppe misses by $0.20, misses on revs; lowers FY17 guidance:

• Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.37 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.20 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.57; revenues fell 5.9% year/year to $316.9 mln vs the $325.71 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Total comparable sales were down 6.3% in the quarter reflecting a 5.8% decline in retail store comparablesales and a 9.1% decrease in vitaminshoppe.com comparable sales. The decrease in comparable sales was partially driven by a change in the Company's Healthy Awards program in first quarter 2016 from an annual redemption program to quarterly, estimated to have had a 2.5% negative impact. Manufacturing sales to Vitamin Shoppe increased 37.7%, while third party sales decreased 13.8% from the same period of the prior year. The Company opened six stores in the quarter, closed one and transformed three into the new brand defining format.
• Gross profit as a percentage of net sales was 31.2% in first quarter 2017, compared to 34.5% in the same period of 2016. The first quarter 2017 year over year decrease was primarily from deleverage in occupancy and supply chain due to lower sales, higher promotional activity and a weaker performance at Nutri-Force. This was partially offset by improvements in margin from favorable category and private brands mix shifts and lower costs through new vendor partnerships.
• Co lowers guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $1.50-1.75 (Previously guided for fully diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.95 - $2.20), excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.04 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees total comparable sales growth rate of negative low to mid single digit (Previously guided for total comparable sales growth flat to low single digit negative)

Skechers USA (SKX)

**** A month later

• SKX continued lower

Monster Worldwide (MWW)

Lesson : GTE big drop

• was #20 on 1/14/15 but dropped 37% the following week
• --> look for strong base after a long downtrend

- daily : poor MACD
- daily: still in downtrending channel

  

Intel (INTC) reports earnings on 1/15/15

• INTC appeared on #72 earlier in the day

** charts before earnings *

  

** daily **

** after earnings **
After Hours: 35.29 -0.90 (-2.49%)

next day:

A WEEK LATER:  the stock did NOT go anywhere after earnings

Market setting up to go higher?

In an uptrend with a rising lower bollinger, any bar that touches the lower bollinger and closes above it is a strong buy.

Here we have that, but also we have supporting evidence. The preceding run up was so strong that it is unlikely the bulls just give up. The downmove over the last 8 trading days has been choppy and weak, painting a hammer candle today. That hammer candle indicates rejection of the lows.

The setup is as follows. Get long on a break of the daily highs ES Z4 1979.25 with a stop at the daily lows 1968 for a risk of $562.50 per contract. This is not a hold forever type of trade, I would definitely be banking some profit at either the upper bollinger or the old highs.

Lesson : Facebook (FB)'s IPO base

A hot new initial offering may need time to cool off and set up a good buy point. It's the quality of the base formed, not how fast it forms after its market debut, that matters.

By the time Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) came public in May 2012, it had become one of the most anticipated initial public offerings. Leading up to its debut, the social network said it expected to price its IPO at $28 to $35 a share. Facebook actually priced at $38 by the time the debut came around, the second-biggest U.S. IPO of all time with a market value of $104 billion.

But the company's financial performance had raised eyebrows as its first-quarter 2012 revenue, operating income and profit margins fell from Q4 2011. The large amount of insider selling, too, sparked concerns.
On May 18, 2012, Facebook made a surprisingly weak showing. The stock popped 12% early and got as high as 45 before ending its first trading day with a 23-cent gain at 38.25.

The next two weeks, shares tumbled 17% and 13%, respectively, in heavy trade. The week ended June 8, 2012, they pared an 8% loss to 2%, a sign of support (1). It looked like Facebook might be setting up an IPO base as the stock rose the next two weeks. Instead, it headed south again and trended lower for the next 10 weeks before bottoming out and reversing higher in September. The stock fell to 17.55, 54% below its offering price. So much for buying a hot IPO on its debut.

Over the next three months, it built the right side of a choppy cup-with-handle pattern. This was its first IPO base. Facebook cleared the 28.98 handle buy point the week ended Jan. 11, 2013, and rose just 12%. It then carved a smoother, shallower base. This turned into a double bottom with a 29.17 buy point.

Facebook soared 31% the week ended July 26, blowing past the entry in its heaviest weekly trade ever (2). The firm reported very good Q2 results and succeeded in making smartphone-based ads a serious part of its revenue engine.

Facebook rallied 75% before forming a new base in October.

Lesson : Google's IPO base

Initial public offerings, or IPOs, can go on to make spectacular gains. But they can also be volatile.

Knowing that new issues are different animals that need to be handled differently can help you trade excellent IPO stocks, such as Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), which came public nearly 10 years ago.

IPOs usually come to the market with much anticipation. Many have some kind of market- dominating product or service. Google was No. 1 in the Internet search market.

In order to fuel expansion, a company will sell a large stake of itself in exchange for money. This is good for the company and gives investors a chance to own a piece of the action.

Many individual investors can forget about buying shares at the offering price, unless they're well connected or have a big account.

The key to trading new issues is to follow rules and have patience. First, don't buy into the hype in the first few days of trading, which can see big swings in either direction. The first day can be particularly volatile.
Without much price action and moving averages to guide you, buying in the early stages can be risky. It's best to let the new issue settle and consolidate gains.

From there, wait for the stock to build an IPO base. Unlike other patterns, which are at least five or six weeks in length, IPO bases can be as short at nine or 10 days. Look for tight, constructive action. Volume should be light during pullbacks and heavy during the stock's upside.

Google came public on Aug. 19, 2004, to much fanfare. On its first day of trading, the stock hit a high just above 104, compared with its offering price of 85 (1). It rose for two more days. On its third day, Google hit a high of 113.48, but closed near its session low (2).

The stock consolidated gains for the next 15 sessions and corrected lightly in the process, down just 13%. Its correction was well in the norm of other bases. The consolidation formed an IPO base with a 113.58 buy point.

Google broke out Sept. 15. Volume should be at least 40% above average on a breakout, but with many new issues, there hasn't been enough trading activity to calculate a 50-day average figure. So there is a judgment call when it comes to what is heavy volume.

In Google's case, turnover that day was one of the heaviest in three weeks. The stock bolted 78% by early November before pulling back to its 50-day moving average 3.

Lesson : GALE buy recommendation 1/18/14

GALE was a recommended BUY  on 1/18/14

We can see GALE had gained 400% in about 2 months by that time. It looked very much overbought at $7.

Two months later GALE dropped to $3.

** daily **

** weekly **

Lesson : Dissecting The 2013 Leg Of Lumber Liquidators' Rally

Lumber Liquidators (LL) debuted in 2007 — a tough year for IPOs.

The company also took on a challenging piece of the flooring trade, going up against national retailers such Home Depot (HD) andLowe's (LOW), as well as smaller flooring providers long established in their local markets.

But a gutted economy and toppled housing market weakened many local players, putting market share up for grabs. High-end consumers recovered rapidly; homeowners looked for remodeling solutions beyond the confines of the national retailers' catalogs.

Lumber launched its winning run in March 2012. From its initial breakout at 22.95 through the end of that year, shares rose 130%. From Jan. 1 to Nov. 18, 2013, the stock added 127%.

Investors trying to hop aboard at the start of 2013 found the early going a bit rough.

Shares formed a shallow cup with handle in November through January. The handle gave a 57.34 buy point during the second week in January. The market was in a confirmed uptrend. Lumber's fundamental vital signs were in order. The stock broke out in heavy trade on Jan. 24.

Easy as pie.

Shares made slow progress for about a month, rising 14%, then dived in heavy volume to test support at their 10-week moving average. The pullback stopped 6% below the initial buy point, but didn't trigger the 8% loss sell rule.

With a loss after six weeks, investors might have sold the stock to roll the capital into stronger performers. After all, a breakout gain that reaches 10% or more should generally not be allowed to turn into a loss.

But on Feb. 26, the stock regained support in heavy trade. It remained in buying range for several sessions, offering a chance to get back on board. IBD highlighted it in boldface in both the NYSE Stocks On The Move and Timesaver Tables on Jan. 31.

In the next four weeks, Lumber Liquidators climbed 25% above its initial buy point. The stock's third rebound from 10-week support was the clincher. It soared 23% in the week ended April 26, giving investors a cushion to ride out the final leg of the run.

The uptrend took a hit Sept. 27 on news that federal investigators had raided the company's offices, investigating alleged import violations. The rally broke decisively Nov. 22, when a short-seller questioned links between gross margin performance and the alleged illegal imports. Such drops gave a signal to take profits.

Lesson : How To Use The IBD 50, Minis To Find Big Stock Winners

Finding a stock like Google (GOOG), Home Depot (HD) or Microsoft (MSFT) in the early stages of their big runs can help you accomplish those goals. What feature in IBD can help your search?
A very good place to start is the IBD 50, a computer-generated list of top growth stocks.

These are not pure momentum stocks. They're selected based on key fundamental criteria such as earnings and sales growth and the quality of price performance. The list appears in the B section of IBD every Monday and Wednesday and includes a column of commentary. In IBD Leaderboard, the IBD 50 is updated every day.

The IBD 50 saves you time because it does the screening for you. Every Monday, IBD also highlights two stocks from the IBD 50 in the form of mini columns. They discuss each stock's fundamentals, the company's business and its competitive strengths.

Each mini column is accompanied by a chart, which includes long-term annual earnings growth and other statistics that provide clues to a stock's potential. Often, the stocks either are working on bases or are near buy points. Find a brief chart analysis at the bottom of the chart. Learning how to analyze charts helps you become a better investor.

Web.com (WWWW), a provider of website publishing and e-commerce services for small and midsize businesses, was featured in an IBD 50 mini on Feb. 19. The chart that went with the story showed that Web.com sported a 91 Composite Rating and a 97 Earnings Per Share Rating, just shy of the best-possible 99.

The chart analysis said it was near a possible 19.21 buy point of a long base. Instead of immediately clearing that buy point, Web.com went on to form a flat base with an 18.57 entry. It broke out on May 3 in huge volume. At the time, its Composite and Earnings Per Share remained strong at 91 and 96 respectively.
From the breakout, Web.com ran up its 10-week line, hitting a high of 33.70 on Oct. 4, good for an 81% gain in just five months. Shortly after, the stock crashed through its 50-day line in heavy volume and now appears to be working on a new base.

Dunkin' Brands (DNKN) has done well since it appeared in an IBD 50 mini column Jan. 7. Not long after, on Jan. 31, it crossed resistance at about 36 in the week ended Jan. 18 and has since risen along with its 10-week line. It's up 33% so far and hasn't yet triggered any major sell signals.

Don't buy a stock just because it's in the IBD 50. Make sure to scrutinize the stocks to make sure they conform to IBD's fundamental and technical characteristics as they cross buy points in sound bases. Also, make sure the market is in a confirmed uptrend before buying.