The Dow and the S&P 500 trading below the “death cross”

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 are trading below their respective “death cross” (50 dma crossed below 200 dma).

iRobot (IRBT) reported earnings on Wed 28 July 2021 (a/h)

** chart before earnings ** 

** charts after earnings **

 

 

 

*** death cross ***

 

IRBT - death cross

iRobot misses by $0.04, beats on revs; lowers FY21 guidance; announces plans to execute a $100 mln accelerated share repurchase

• Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.27 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 worse than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.31; revenues rose 27.9% year/year to $356.6 mln vs the $352.76 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
• Co issues lowered guidance for FY21, sees EPS of $2.25-3.15 from $3.00-3.25, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.12 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees FY21 revs of $1.55-1.62 bln from $1.67-1.71 bln vs. $1.69 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
• "With household penetration still low, a growing global connected customer base and many exciting growth initiatives now underway or in the advanced planning stages, we believe that our exit trajectory for the second half of 2022 in combination with continued strategic progress will set the stage for sustaining solid annual top-line expansion that can be converted into improving double-digit operating profit margins, substantial EPS growth, and robust operating cash flow generation. Our upcoming plan to execute a $100 million Accelerated Share Repurchase agreement demonstrates our confidence in our strategic direction and in our ability to capitalize on the exciting opportunities that lie ahead."

Daily NYSI – March 2019

• Mon 3/4/19

 

• Fri 3/1/19

 

$SPX with Dec '18 death cross

Daily NYSI – January 2019

• Fri 1/4/19

 

Death cross on $SPX in early Dec. 2018

REV Group (REVG) reported earnings on Wed 19 Dec 18 (a/h)

** charts before earnings **

death cross earlier this year

** charts after earnings **

REV Group misses by $0.25, misses on revs; guides FY19 revs in-line; expects FebQ will be softer than the prior year as near-term challenges persist

• Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $0.28 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.25 worse than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.53; revenues fell 3.5% year/year to $659.8 mln vs the $709.6 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
• Co issues in-line guidance for FY19, sees FY19 revs of $2.40-2.60 bln vs. $2.55 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

Commentary:

• "We are disappointed with our financial results for fiscal year 2018. Fiscal 2018 was a year in which we were confronted with the strong headwinds from the impacts of tariffs, chassis availability, material lead time extensions and temporary labor inefficiencies....As we look to fiscal year 2019, we expect improvement in the availability of chassis and flow of raw materials. We are taking actions to increase manufacturing output to meet the ongoing strength of demand and to catch up with the delayed shipments we have experienced."
• Co enters FY19 with expectations for a return to growth in organic sales and profitability as well as significantly stronger cash flow generation and higher returns on invested capital. Co expects the strength of its financial results in FY19 to be weighted toward the second half of the year, consistent with historical trends, and that 1Q19 (Feb) will be softer than the prior year as near-term challenges persist through the end of the calendar year.

FedEx (FDX) reported earnings on Tue 18 Dec 2018 (a/h)

** charts before earnings **

 

** charts after earnings **

FedEx beats by $0.10, beats on revs; lowers FY19 EPS below consensus primarily due to European weakness; announces cost-reduction initiatives; rescinds FY20 profit target

• Reports Q2 (Nov) earnings of $4.03 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $3.93; revenues rose 9.3% year/year to $17.8 bln vs the $17.62 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. Operating income grew during the quarter due to higher volumes, increased yields and a favorable net impact of fuel at all transportation segments. Lower variable compensation also benefited results for the quarter. At FedEx Express, operating results were negatively impacted during the quarter by lower-than-expected international revenue, especially in Europe and Asia, higher growth in lower-yielding services across the network and the timing of aircraft maintenance events.
• Co issues downside guidance for FY19, sees EPS of $15.50-16.60 from $17.20-17.80, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $17.33 S&P Capital IQ Consensus. 
• These forecasts assume moderate U.S. domestic economic growth and no further weakening in international economic conditions from the current forecast. 
• Management still expects to realize the benefits from TNT Express that were anticipated when the company was acquired. However, lower-than-expected express package volume due to European economic weakness that accelerated during the quarter and is expected to continue, and a change in service mix following the June 2017 cyberattack on TNT Express, will delay the anticipated realization of these benefits. As a result, the target to increase FedEx Express operating income by $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion over fiscal 2017 results will not be achieved in fiscal 2020.
• "Global trade has slowed in recent months and leading indicators point to ongoing deceleration in global trade near-term," said Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer. "These trends, coupled with the change in service mix at FedEx Express, are negatively impacting the segment's financial results. We remain committed to actively managing costs with a heightened focus on increasing efficiency across the organization." 
• In addition to lowering variable compensation, FedEx is implementing other cost-reduction initiatives to mitigate below-plan performance. These actions include: A voluntary buyout program for eligible employees International network capacity reductions at FedEx Express Limited hiring in staff functions Reductions in discretionary spending. A pre-tax cash charge related to the voluntary buyout program for U.S.-based employees is expected to total $450 million to $575 million and should predominantly occur in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. Actual costs will depend on employee acceptance rates. Savings from this program are expected to be $225 million to $275 million in fiscal 2020. Similar programs are being considered for employees in international regions.

Russell 2000 ‘death cross’ ?

Apple (AAPL) death cross and Ford (F) golden cross

 Apple (AAPL) death cross : 50 dma drops below 200 dma

Ford (F) golden cross : 50 dma crosses over 200 dma

update almost 1 year later; 26 Nov 2013:
AAPL dropped 30% in the 6 months since the original post; F gained 60%

Market outlook: S&P 500 Convergence Nears 1940s Bear Signal (17 Jul 2012)

(Bloomberg) -- Investors ought to heed a warning signal that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is on the verge of sending for the first time since the 1940s, according to Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale SA.

As the chart illustrates, the S&P 500’s average for the past 50 months is close to falling below the 200-month average. The moving averages closed yesterday at 1,151.90 and 1,145.30, respectively.

This kind of a move last occurred in March 1946. After gains in April and May that year, the index had six straight months of losses. The decline totaled 23 percent, which exceeded the 20 percent threshold commonly used to define a bear market.

“Investors beware,” Edwards wrote in a report yesterday. The London-based strategist referred to the potential shift as “the ultimate death cross,” a chart pattern that foreshadows more losses. He expects the index to reach 400 before the next bull market begins.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average had a “death cross” in 1998, as Edwards wrote in the report. Yesterday’s close for that benchmark was 47 percent lower than its level before the moving
averages intersected.


The Stoxx Europe 600 Index, on the other hand, managed to advance after the 50-month and 200-month averages crossed last October. The index had a 5.4 percent gain through yesterday.