Nasdaq 100 on pace for best January since 1999

 The Nasdaq 100 Stock Index is on pace for its best January since 1999 despite warning signs from the likes of Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. and another expected interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The Cboe Volatility Index sank within striking distance of a 10-month low on Friday, signalling less angst in the market. Meanwhile, options trading on megacaps last week showed demand hasn’t jumped for protection against a selloff.

(live chart)

Market update (29 Nov 2019)

Nasdaq Composite +30.6% YTD
S&P 500 +25.3% YTD
Russell 2000 +20.5% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +20.3% YTD

S&P 500 - 2 years

Market update: Trade slams stocks as Fed takes wait-and-see stance (23 August 2019)

Nasdaq Composite +16.8% YTD
S&P 500 +13.6% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +9.9% YTD
Russell 2000 +8.2% YTD

The stock market sold off on Friday after President Trump ordered companies to find an alternative to China in response to Beijing announcing retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. The S&P 500 (-2.6%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.4%) , the Nasdaq Composite (-3.0%) and Russell 2000 (-3.1%).

Worries about trade tensions with China following a combative tweet earlier in the day from President Trump, who was squawking back at China for its tariff announcement this morning and "ordering" U.S. companies to find alternatives to China, have catalyzed today's sell-off.

The day started with investors looking forward to Fed Chair Powell's speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Attention quickly shifted to trade, however, after China announced tariffs on $75 billion of goods imported from the U.S on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15, which are the same dates the U.S. has planned for its tariffs on China. The tariff rate will range from 5-10%, including a separate 5-25% on autos and auto parts starting Dec. 15.

Modest selling ensued, but stocks quickly recouped losses after Mr. Powell reiterated comments that upheld the market's view for further economic stimulus. The day had barely begun, though, and President Trump took to Twitter to lash out against both the Fed Chair and China. Stocks fell noticeably on the president's declaration that companies find alternatives to China.

Amid the uncertainty and growth concerns, investors flocked to safe-haven assets like gold ($1537.25/oz, +$28.75, +1.9%), the Japanese yen, and U.S. Treasuries. In addition, expectations for further downside in equities contributed to a 17.8% spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (19.65, +2.97).

The 2-yr yield dropped seven basis points to 1.53%, and the 10-yr yield dropped eight basis points to 1.53%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 97.73. WTI crude fell 2.0%, or $1.12, to $54.16/bbl.

President Trump also indicated he would officially respond to Beijing's actions in the afternoon. No response was announced by session's close, which may have contributed to some reservations to step into the action during the day.

U.S. Treasuries ended the week on a sharply higher note.
Yield Check:

• 2-yr: -7 bps to 1.53%
• 3-yr: -8 bps to 1.45%
• 5-yr: -8 bps to 1.41%
• 10-yr: -8 bps to 1.53%
• 30-yr: -8 bps to 2.03%

Commodities:

• WTI crude: -2.0% to $54.16/bbl
• Gold: +1.9% to $1537.50/ozt
• Copper: -1.2% to $2.53/lb

Currencies:

• EUR/USD: +0.6% to 1.1146
• GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.2288
• USD/CNH: +0.6% to 7.1337
• USD/JPY: -1.0% to 105.31

Market update: Federal Reserve hikes short-term rates by 0.25% (26 September 2018)

The Federal Reserve increased short-term interest rates on Wednesday, as expected, raising the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 2.00-2.25%.

• Fed hikes interest rates, raises its economic outlook and drops 'accommodative' language
• Fed's Powell: Lack of 'accomodative' language a sign policy inline with expectations

Stocks were up modestly ahead of the release of the Fed's decision, which crossed the wires at 2:00 PM ET, and extended gains after the central bank removed the word 'accommodative' from its policy statement. However, that initial move was reversed, and then some, following a post-decision press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, during which he said the language change didn't signal a change in the Fed's path for rate hikes.

The S&P 500 was up as much as 0.5% on Wednesday but fell sharply in the final minutes of the session to finish with a loss of 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended lower by 0.2%, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average finished lower by 0.4%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 lost 1.0%.

As for rate-hike projections, the Fed still appears to be on track to raise rates another 25 basis points in December, with the CME FedWatch Tool putting the chances at 79.2%. Beyond 2018, the Fed's dot plot showed expectations for three rate hikes in 2019 (unchanged from June) and one in 2020 (also unchanged from June).

U.S. Treasury yields fell following the Fed's policy announcement, although the 2-yr yield managed to close unchanged at 2.83%. The yield on the benchmark 10-yr Treasury note dropped four basis points to 3.06%. In currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index finished +0.2% at 93.90, but was volatile after the release.

The drop in Treasury yields weighed on the rate-sensitive financial sector, which finished at the bottom of the sector standings with a loss of 1.3%. The energy sector (-1.0%) was another notable laggard, dropping in tandem with the price of crude oil; WTI crude futures finished -1.0% at $71.58/bbl.

Russell 2000 ‘death cross’ ?