Insider Trading Tue 1/30/24

Notable purchases -- 10% owner adds to KALV; notable sales -- COO active in SSB

Buyers:

• FBK Director bought 14,808 shares at $24.77 - $29.61 worth ~$399K.
• KALV 10% owner bought 91,804 shares at $12.64 - $14.43 worth ~$1.3 mln.
• OPK Director bought 30,000 shares worth ~$30K.

Sellers:

• BFH 10% owner sold 45,000 shares at $35.11 - $36.23 worth ~$1.6 mln.
• CBU Director sold 3,501 shares at $48.76 worth ~$171K.
• SLB Chief Sustainability Officer sold 8,000 shares at $52.625 worth ~$421K.
• SSB Chief Operating Officer sold 4,025 shares at $85.62 worth ~$345K.

Other notable transactions:

• NFLX co-founder / executive chairman Reed Hastings gifted 2,000,000 shares of Netflix common stock worth more than $1.1 bln (based on yesterday's closing price). Hastings now owns owns approx. 2.99 mln shares. 

This week's biggest % winners & losers : Apr 18 - 22, 22 (wk 16)

The following are this week's top percentage gainers and losers, categorized by sectors (over $300 mln market cap and 100K average daily volume).

This week's top % gainers

• Healthcare: TCDA (10.72 +10.17%)
• Materials: RFP (13.96 +9.73%)
• Industrials: UAL (51.87 +14.93%), CAR (300.71 +13.3%), HCSG (19.28 +12.68%), ABM (53.97 +9.46%), AAON (56.45 +8.6%), MLI (57.63 +8.43%)
• Consumer Discretionary: PLYA (9.15 +9.71%)
• Information Technology: CASA (4.87 +25.06%), ATEN (14.4 +10.94%), IBM (139.71 +10.39%)
• Financials: MTB (174.28 +9.22%), RLI (118.55 +8.68%), SIVB (548.69 +8.21%)
• Consumer Staples: KMB (139.47 +10.32%), CHEF (36.52 +10.17%)

This week's top % losers

• Healthcare: RUBY (1.38 -30.9%), CDXS (13.56 -26.26%), NKTR (4.6 -25.32%), SIEN (1.49 -25.13%), OMER (4.13 -19.75%), NVAX (47 -19.73%), ESPR (4.76 -19.19%), ALLK (4.35 -19.14%)
• Materials: CENX (20.8 -24.12%), AA (67.65 -22.92%)
• Industrials: AVAV (87.46 -19.89%)
• Consumer Discretionary: NFLX (215.52  -36.82), NLS (3.16 -19.92%)
• Energy: BTU (24.9 -23.47%), TELL (4.93 -20.36%)

-=Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Tue 19 Apr 22 (a/h)

 

Netflix beats on EPS, reports slight downside on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs slightly below consensus; Net adds in Q1 were -0.20 mln vs +2.50 mln prior guidance

• Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $3.53 per share, $0.61 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $2.92; revenues rose 9.8% year/year to $7.87 bln vs the $7.94 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Global streaming paid net adds in Q1 were -0.20 mln vs +2.50 mln prior guidance. Co guides to Q2 global streaming paid net adds at -2.00 mln.
  • Q1 operating margin came in at 25.1% vs 22.3% prior guidance; guides to Q2 operating margin of 21.5%.
  • "Our revenue growth has slowed considerably...Streaming is winning over linear, as we predicted, and Netflix titles are very popular globally. However, our relatively high household penetration - when including the large number of households sharing accounts - combined with competition, is creating revenue growth headwinds. The big COVID boost to streaming obscured the picture until recently. While we work to reaccelerate our revenue growth - through improvements to our service and more effective monetization of multi-household sharing - we'll be holding our operating margin at around 20%."
  • "We estimate that Netflix is being shared with over 100m additional households, including over 30m in the UCAN region. Account sharing as a percentage of our paying membership hasn't changed much over the years, but...means it's harder to grow membership in many markets - an issue that was obscured by our COVID growth."
  • Competition: Co says competition for viewing with linear TV as well as YouTube, Amazon, and Hulu has been robust for the last 15 years. However, over the last three years, as traditional entertainment companies realized streaming is the future, many new streaming services have also launched. While our US television viewing share, for example, has been steady to up according to Nielsen, we want to grow that share faster.
• Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $3.00 vs. $3.02 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q2 revs of $8.053 bln vs. $8.22 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

It's the worst performer year-to-date in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq after just one day of plummeting stock performance. Netflix posted its first drop in subscribers since 2011, as shown in today's Chart of the Day. But perhaps more shocking than the 200,000 subscriber loss in the first quarter is the 2 million customers the streaming company expects to lose in the second quarter.

The solution? Netflix will introduce an ad-supported version of its service and target password sharing. To me, the bigger take away is how the rest of the market is reacting. Not too long ago, the end of a decade long growth trend (of say, 25 million subscribers a year on average) in one of the most-watched tech stocks would have tanked the whole market. 

Earnings this week : Apr 18 - 22, 22 (wk 16)

Monday (Apr 18)

• Morning:  BAC BK SCHW SYF
• Afternoon: ELS FNB HOPE JBHT NBHC PNFP

Tuesday (Apr 19)

• Morning: BMI CFG CBSH FITB HAL HAS IRDM JNJ LMT MAN PLD SBNY SI TRV TFC
• Afternoon:  FHN FULT HWC IBM IBKR MRTN NFLX OMC PACW REXR LRN UCBI WTFC

Wednesday (Apr 20)

• Morning:  ABT ANTM ASML BKR CMA GATX HCSG LAD MTB MKTX NDAQ PG RCI
• Afternoon:  AA BDN CNS CCI CSX CVBF EFX FR GL KALU KMI KNX LRCX LSTR LBRT RLI SEIC SLG SNBR STLD THC TSLA TCBI UMPQ UAL VMI

Thursday (Apr 21)

• Morning: ABB ALK AAL T AUB AN BANC BKU BX COLB DHR DOW EWBC FCX GPC HRI HOMB HBAN KEY MMC NEE NEP NUE PNR PM POOL DGX SASR SNA SON SNV TSCO TPH UNP WSO WNS
• During Market Hours: WABC
• Afternoon:  ASB OZK BJRI SAM FFBC FE GBCI HTH ISRG PPG XM SNAP SIVB UFPI VICR WAL WSFS

Friday (Apr 22)  

• Morning:  AXP ALV AZZ CLF FHB GNTX HCA KMB NEM RF SAP SLB VZ

-=Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Tue 20 Apr 21 (a/h)

• Netflix fell 7.4% after missing subscriber estimates and issuing disappointing Q2 guidance. 
• Netflix also is contending with more competition now. Its rivals include Disney+ from Walt Disney (DIS), HBO Max from AT&T (T), Peacock from Comcast (CMCSA) and Paramount+ from ViacomCBS (VIAC).

Los Gatos, Calif.-based Netflix added 3.98 million new streaming subscribers in the first quarter. At the start of the quarter, Netflix forecast adding 6 million new subscribers in the period. Wall Street was looking for 6.3 million net new Netflix subscribers in the March quarter.

Netflix faced difficult comparisons to the year-earlier period when it added 15.77 million new subscribers, crushing Wall Street's estimates. The subscription video-on-demand service got a huge boost in subscribers as people stayed home at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

For the current quarter, Netflix expects to add 1 million new subscribers worldwide. Wall Street had predicted 4.4 million net new adds in the second quarter. In the June quarter last year, Netflix added 10.09 million new subscribers.

Netflix ended the March quarter with 207.64 million streaming subscribers worldwide.

=Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Wed 17 July 19 (a/h)

Netflix beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line, misses subscriber forecast; guides Q3 EPS and revs in-line, subs just above estimates; reaffirms FCF, operating margin

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.60 per share, $0.05 better thanthe S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.55; revenues rose 26.0% year/year to $4.92 bln vs the $4.93 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. 

Paid membership grew by 2.7m, less than the 5.5m in Q2 a year ago and their 5.0m forecast.

• "Our missed forecast was across all regions, but slightly more so in regions with price increases. We don't believe competition was a factor since there wasn't a material change in the competitive landscape during Q2, and competitive intensity and our penetration is varied across regions (while our over-forecast was in every region). Rather, we think Q2's content slate drove less growth in paid net adds than we anticipated. Additionally, Q1 was so large for us (9.6m net adds), there may have been more pull-forward effect than we realized."

In Q3, they expect to grow by 7m paid memberships vs. 6.3 mln ests, more than the 6.1m in Q3 a year ago. While our US paid membership was essentially flat in Q2, we expect it to return to more typical growth in Q3, and are seeing that in these early weeks of Q3. We forecast Q3 global paid net adds of 7.0m, up vs. 6.1m in Q3'18, with 0.8m in the US and 6.2m internationally. Our internal forecast still currently calls for annual global paid net adds to be up year over year.

Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $1.04 vs. $1.04 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q3 revs of $5.25 bln vs. $5.24 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

There's no change to our 13% operating margin target for FY19, up 300 basis points year over year. We're still forecasting FCF of ~($3.5 billion) for the full year 2019 and expect improvement in 2020. From there, we'll continue to reduce our free cash flow deficit as we intend to continue growing our member base, revenues, and operating margin, which provides a clear path towards positive FCF.

=Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Tue 16 Oct 2018 (a/h)

Netflix beats by $0.21, reports revs in-line with net subscriber adds above guidance; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs in-line but subs above estimates 

• Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.89 per share, $0.21 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.68; revenues rose 34.0% year/year to $4 bln vs the $3.99 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. Streaming revenue grew 36% year over year in Q3, as average paid membership increased 25% and ASP rose 8%
• Net subscriber adds 6.96M vs. 5M guidance; 1.09M in US vs. 650K guidance, 5.87M International vs. 4.35M guidance
• Operating margin expanded 500 bps year over year to 12%. This exceeded their forecast of 10.5% due to the timing of content and marketing spend, a portion of which moved into Q4.
• Co issues guidancefor Q4, sees EPS of $0.23 vs. $0.49 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q4 revs of $4.2 bln vs. $4.23 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. 
  • Sees Q4 sub adds 9.4M vs. ests near 7.5M; 1.8M in US and 7.6M internationally
  • still targeting operating margin to be at the lower end of the 10%-11% range for the full year 2018. This means that in Q4 we expect operating margin will dip to 5% from 7.5% in the year ago quarter.
  • anticipate that FCF will be closer to -$3 billion than to -$4 billion for the full year 2018.
  • We currently see next year's negative FCF as roughly flat with this year.
  • Starting with our earnings report in January 2019, we'll only guide to paid memberships; a year after that, in 2020, we'll cease reporting on end-of-quarter free trial count. 

Earnings this week : October 15 - 19, 2018 (wk 42)

Earnings confirmed to report this week

Monday (Oct 15)

• Morning: BAC  
• Afternoon: JBHT

Tuesday (Oct 16)

• Morning: BLK  CMA FHN DPZ GS  GWW JNJ MS OMC PGR PLD  UNH
• Afternoon:  ADTN CREE CSX FULT HCSG HOPE HWC IBKR IBM  LRCX LTXB MRTN NFLX  PNFP SONC TACO  UAL UFPI

Wednesday (Oct 17)

• Morning: ABT ASML BMI MTB MTG NTRS SVU UNF USB WGO
• Afternoon:  AA BDN BXS CATY CCI CCK CNS EGBN KALU KMI SLG STLD TBK TCBI UMPQ URI WTFC

Thursday (Oct 18)

• Morning:  ADS BBT BK BX DHR DOV ERIC EWBC GPC GTLS HOMB IIIN KEY LNN MDSO NUE NVR NVS PM POOL PPG SAP SASR SBNY SNA SON TRV TSM TTS TXT WBC WBS
• Afternoon: AXP CP CE ETFC EXPO ISRG PYPL SKX WDFC WERN 

Friday (Oct 18)

• Morning: CLF HON IPG KSU MAN MINI PG RCI VFC

Thur Oct 18 a/h

=Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Mon 16 July 18 (a/h)

Netflix beats by $0.06, reports rev and subscribers below guidance; guides Q3 EPS, rev and subs below consensus 

• Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.85 per share ($0.66 excluding a $85M FX gain), $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.79; revenues rose 40.3% year/year to $3.91 bln vs the $3.94 bln Capital IQ Consensus. 
• "This Q2, we over-forecasted global net additions which amounted to 5.2m vs. a forecast of 6.2m and flat compared to Q2 a year ago, as acquisition growth was slightly lower than we projected. Paid net adds totaled 5.5m in Q2, compared with 4.7m last year and forecast of 6.1m. US net adds of 0.7m (vs. guidance of 1.2m) were down vs. last year's Q2-record 1.1m, but consistent with previous Q2 performance (0.5m in Q2'12, 0.6m in Q2'13, 0.6m in Q2'14, 0.9m in Q2'15, and 0.2m in Q2'16). Through the first six months of the year, our US net adds are slightly ahead of last year."
• Internationally, 4.5m net additions grew 8% year over year on broad market growth, below 5m guidance. 
• Operating margin of 11.8% (vs. 12% guidance) expanded 720 bps year over year, resulting in 262% growth in operating income
• Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.68 vs. $0.71 Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q3 revs of $3.988 bln vs. $4.12 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. 
• For Q3, we forecast global net adds of 5.0m vs. ~5.6M estimates (compared with 5.3m in Q3'17), with 0.65m and 4.35m in the US and international segment, respectively. Paid net adds are forecast to be 5.2m, up from 5.0m in Q3'17.
• "For the full year 2018, current F/X rates have pushed our expectations on operating margin to be near the lower end of 10-11% target range. We continue to expect steady growth in operating margin in 2019 and beyond... We continue to anticipate FCF of -$3 to -$4 billion for the full year 2018, which implies that our content cash spending will be weighted to the second half of 2018"

Netflix earnings follow up: Down 14% after reporting Q2 results shy of its own forecast and guiding Q3 below estimates 

• Netflix is down 13% after the company reported second quarter revenue and subscribers below its own forecast.
• Revenue came in at $3.91 bln vs. the $3.93 bln forecast, subscriber additions came in at 5.1 mln vs. 6.2 mln forecast.
• EPS of $0.85 included a FX gain so you could make the case that EPS missed as well: $0.66 ex-that item vs. $0.79 forecast.
• Netflix also guided Q3 EPS revenue and subscribers just below the Street's expectations.
• Netflix stock was 'priced to perfection' and Wall Street analysts warned about risk to Q2 subscriber estimates in recent sessions.
• Earnings interview starts at 18:00.
• Stock -14% testing 20-Week moving average near 343 in the after hours.

Earnings this week : July 16 - 20, 18 (wk 29)

Earnings expected this week

Monday (July 16)

• Morning: BAC, BLK, JBHT
• Afternoon: NFLX

Tuesday (July 17)

• Morning: UNH, JNJ, GS, PGR, OMC, SCHW, CMA, PLD, FHN, NSM, NEOG
• Afternoon: UAL, CSX, FNF, IBKR, WTFC, HWC, MLNX, PNFP, FULT, MRTN, HOPE, RNST, ADTN, LTXB

Wednesday (July 18)

• Morning: ERIC, NVS, MS, ABT, USB, TXT, GWW, ASML, NTRS, MTB, OACW, MTG, WAFD
• Afternoon: IBM, AXP, AA, KMI, CCK, EBAY, URI, CP, CCI, UFPI, PLXS, PTC, UMPQ, LHO, TCBI, SLG, BXS, RECN, CATY, NDLS, BMI, CNS, CVBF, EGBN, TBK, DWCH

Thursday (July 19)

• Morning: ABB, ADS, BBT, BX, BK, GTLS, DHR, DPZ, DOV, EWBC, FITB, GATX, GPC, HOMB, IIIN, KEY, NUE, PM, POOL, PPG, RCI, RPM, SASR, SAP, SCHL, SBNY, SNA, SON, TSM, TTS, TRV, UNP, WBC, WBS, WNS
• Afternoon: MSFT, COF, CE, CTAS, SKX, SWKS, ISRG, ETFC, SEIC, PBCT, ASB, NWE, WAL, MBFI, FFBC, BDN, FFIN, EXPO, EGP, LLNW

Friday (July 20)

• Morning: GE, HON, SLB, MAN, BHGE, SWK, STT, STI, CFG, RF, KSU, CLF, GNTX, IBKC, SXT, VFC

=Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Mon 22 Jan 2018 (a/h)

Netflix reports EPS in-line, revs in-line with higher than expected subs; guides Q1 EPS and revs above consensus; guides FY18 content spend, FCF, operating margin 

• Reports Q4 (Dec) GAAP earnings of $0.41 per share, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.41; revenues rose 32.6% year/year to $3.29 bln vs the $3.28 bln Capital IQ Consensus. 
  • International Net sub additions 6.36 mln vs 5.05 mln guidance; Int'l rev and ASP grew 59% and 12% year over year, respectively.
  • Domestic Net Additions 1.98 mln vs 1.25 mln guidance; Domestic contribution profit increased 5% year-over-year although contribution margin of 34.4% declined both on a year-over-year and sequential basis due to higher marketing spend
  • In Q4, free cash flow amounted to -$524 million, bringing full year 2017 FCF to -$2.0 billion, at the lower end of the -$2.0 to -$2.5 billion range we had previously indicated. This was largely due to the timing of content payments, which will now occur in 2018.
• Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.63 vs. $0.56 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q1 revs of $3.686 bln vs. $3.49 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. 
  • For Q1, we project global net adds of 6.35 million (vs. 5.0m in the year ago quarter), with 1.45m in the US and 4.90m internationally.
• "As we wrote last quarter, our primary profit metric is operating margin and we are targeting a full year 2018 target of 10%, up about 300 basis points year over year, as in the prior year. We believe our big investments in content are paying off."
• In 2017, average streaming hours per membership grew by 9% year-over-year. With greater than expected member growth (resulting in more revenue), we now plan to spend $7.5-8.0 billion on content on a P&L basis in 2018. 
• "In the near term, however, membership, revenue and original content spend are booming. We're growing faster than we expected, which allows us to invest more in original content than we had planned, so our FCF will be around negative $3B-4B in 2018." 

=Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Mon 17 July 2017 (a/h)

Netflix misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus:

• Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.15 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.16; revenues rose 32.3% year/year to $2.79 bln vs the $2.76 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
• See Full List of Key Metrics in 16:14 comment
• Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.32, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.22 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q3 revs of $2969 vs. $2.88 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
• Key excerpts from Shareholders Letter
  • In Q2, we underestimated the popularity of our strong slate of content which led to higher-than-expected acquisition across all major territories. As a result, global net adds totaled a Q2-record 5.2 million (vs. forecast of 3.2m) and increased 5% sequentially, bucking historical seasonal patterns. For the first six months of 2017, net adds are up 21% year-on-year to 10.2m.
  • International contribution profit of -$13 million vs. -$69 million was better than our -$28 million forecast due primarily to higher-than-forecasted paid members.
  • We are making good progress with our international expansion as improving profitability in our earlier international markets helps fund significant investment in our newer territories. As a result, we expect positive international contribution profit for the full year 2017, at current F/X exchange rates. This would mark the first ever annual contribution profit from our international segment.
  • Through the first half of 2017, our operating margin was 7.1%, putting us on track for our full year target of 7%, which we plan on growing in 2018 and beyond.
  • On competition: It seems our growth just expands the market. The largely exclusive nature of each service's content means that we are not direct substitutes for each other, but rather complements.
  • We anticipate free cash flow of -$2.0 to -$2.5 billion for the full year 2017. With our content strategy paying off in strong member, revenue and profit growth, we think it's wise to continue to invest.
    • Briefing.com Note: Prior guidance was for $2 bln.

====Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Mon 17 Oct 2016 (a/h)

Netflix beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 EPS above consensus; Reports better than expected net adds :

• Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.12 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 31.7% year/year to $2.29 bln vs the $2.28 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Netflix Q3 Domestic Net Additions 0.370 mln vs 0.30 mln guidance; Q4 guidance is for 1.45 mln, expectations were for ~1.00 mln; Q2 adds was 0.16 mln
  • Netflix Q3 International Net Additions 3.20 mln vs 2.00 mln guidance; For Q4 NFLX expects addition of 3.75 mln, expectations were for ~3.00 mln; Q2 Adds was 1.52 mln
  • See 16:09 comment for full metrics.
• Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.13, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.08 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

=Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Mon 18 Jul 2016 (a/h)

Netflix beats by $0.07, misses on revs; sees Q3 EPS below consensus; reports disappointing Net Additions and guidance  :

• Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.02; revenues rose 19.5% year/year to $1.97 bln vs the $2.11 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Q2 Domestic Net Additions 0.16 mln vs 0.50 mln guidance; Q3 guidance is for 0.30 mln, expectations were in the 0.75-0.80; Q1 adds was 2.23 mln
• Q2 International Net Additions 1.52 mln vs 2.00 mln guidance; For Q3 NFLX expects addition of 2 mln, expectations were in the range of 2.70-2.85 mln; Q1 Adds was 4.51 mln
• Sees Q3 EPS $0.05 vs. $0.08 Consensus.
• See 16:06 for additional metrics.

Key Excerpts from Letter

• Gross additions were on target, but churn ticked up slightly and unexpectedly, coincident with the press coverage in early April of our plan to ungrandfather longer tenured members and remained elevated through the quarter. We think some members perceived the news as an impending new price increase rather than the completion of two years of grandfathering. Churn of members who were actually ungrandfathered is modest and conforms to our expectations
• On earnings, we slightly underforecast the quarter, ending Q2 with operating income of $70 million and net income of $41 million against a forecast of $47 million and $9 million with the variance largely due to lowerthanexpected content and other costs.
• Similarly, we don't believe market saturation is a key factor in the US given that we experienced similar performance over the same period in multiple countries with differing levels of Netflix market penetration.
• Our global membership forecast for Q3 includes an impact from the spectacle of the Olympics, on par with what we experienced four years ago, and does not include any boost in the US from the Comcast X1 launch due to uncertainty on timing.
• We expect US contribution margin to improve year over year in both Q3 and Q4 and we anticipate meeting our 40% US contribution margin target by 2020, or even earlier.
• Unfortunately, this year the regulatory climate in China for our service has become more challenging. Disney's streaming service, launched in conjunction with Alibaba, was closed down, as was Apple's movie offering. We continue to explore options and, in the meantime, have plenty of work to do in our newly opened markets.
• Continued US growth will be a part of it and there is no change to our view that in the US Netflix can reach 60-90 million members. We continue to expect to run around breakeven on a net income basis in 2016 and to generate material profits in 2017 and beyond.
• We still plan to raise additional capital through the high yield market later in 2016/early 2017.

=Netflix (NFLX) reported earnings on Mon 18 Apr 2016 (a/h)

Netflix predicted that it would add roughly 2 million international subscribers during the second quarter that will end in June. That was below the 2.4 million Netflix added during the first quarter that ended in March, and well below Wall Street's expectations that the company would add 3.5 million international subscribers.

Worries about international growth, concerns about rising competition from Amazon and Hulu Networks, along with the prospect that some U.S. subscribers might ditch Netflix when monthly prices rise, all coalesced into a financial stew that left investors queasy.

"We were incredibly excited to grow to over 81 million subscribers," Reed Hastings, chief executive officer of Netflix, told analysts during a conference call to discuss first-quarter earnings results. "It's an enormous quarter for us."

=Netflix (NFLX) reported 4Q earnings on Tue 19 Jan 2016 (a/h)

** charts before earnings **





** charts after earnings **

Netflix beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; international subs above guidance; guides Q3 EPS in-line :

• Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.10 per share (including $0.03 tax benefit), $0.08 better thanthe Capital IQ Consensus of $0.02; revenues rose 22.8% year/year to $1.82 bln vs the $1.83 bln Capital IQ Consensus. NFLX Q1 Sub Add Guidance- Domestic Net Adds 1.75 mln vs 2.01 mln Briefing.com consensus; International Net Adds 4.35 mln vs 3.39 mln Briefing.com consensus.
• NFLX reports Q4 Domestic Sub adds of 1.56 mln vs 1.65 mln and guidance; International subs 4.04 mln vs 3.50 mln guidance.
• Co sees Q3 EPS $0.03 vs. $0.03 Consensus.
• Please see 16:13 for additional metric details.

Key Excerpts from Shareholders Letter:

• "On earnings, we stayed profitable in Q4 despite foreign exchange headwinds, and delivered operating income of $60m and net income of $43m. We expect similar modest operating income results for Q1, assuming current foreign exchange, as we invest in our international expansion".
• "In September, we launched in Japan, followed by Spain, Portugal and Italy in October. We are very pleased with the first few months of membership growth in these markets. Our international contribution loss of $109 million in Q4 increased sequentially due to these launches. Weanticipate Q1 international losses of about $114 million".
• "Our global availability sets us up for continued growth for many years and we continue toexpect material global profits beginning in 2017".
• "In Q4, average subscriber price grew 4-5% y/y around the world, excluding the impact of foreign currency; We are seeing increased adoption of our Ultra-HD plan ($11.99) as more UHD TVs are purchased and as we are a leading source of UHD content for consumers".
• "New credit/debit card rollover continues to be a background issue".
• "In Q2 and Q3, we'll be releasing a substantial number of our US members from price grandfathering on the HD plan and they will have the option of continuing at $7.99 but now on the SD plan, or continuing on HD at $9.99 a month. Given these members have been with us at least 2 years, we expect only slightly elevated churn. Our 2020 US contribution target remains at 40% and we are already at 34%".
• "In the last remaining major market, China, we have work and uncertainty ahead. We are building relationships, understanding the market, and seeking the conditions we require to provide our service to entertainment lovers there. Our expectations are modest and long-term. We may be able to get started this year and thus deliver on "whole world by end of 2016" or it may take longer".
• "Given our expected cash needs, we are likely to raise additional debt in late 2016 or early 2017".

Netflix (NFLX) reports earnings on 1/20/15 a/h

• was on scan #2 today and yesterday
• buying Jan 23 $350 calls for $17.95  (bid-ask: 17.60 - 17.95)

** charts before **

 

** daily and weekly  **

** daily **

** daily **

** after earnings **

Q4 earnings of $0.72 have been announced, beating analyst estimates by $0.28.

348.80  +11.46 (3.40%)

After Hours: 403.75 +54.95 (15.75%)

• bot $350 calls for $17.95  (bid/ask: 17.60 / 17.95) --> now +190%  $57  (bid/ask:  56.10 / 57.30)
• $400 calls were 2.95 --> now  +300%  $12.15  (bid/ask:  11.40 / 12.10)

SUMMARY

• on #2 for two days before earnings
• daily: 1. low stochs, 2. nice stochs, 3. MACD so-so
• weekly: 1. low stochs, 2. nice stochs, 3. nice MACD 
• finviz: nice
• NFLX +30% in 1 week

bot $350 calls for $18 --> now $86 on Fri 1/23, profit = $68   +380% 

      $400 calls were 2.95 --> now  $37.50,  profit = $34.55     +1100%

© Artremis / Eva Sawicka (1/20/15)

A4: NFLX vs AAPL - 13 months later

Q4 : What's a better buy - NFLX or AAPL ? from March 15, 2011

• NFLX reached a high of $297 on July 5, then collapsed
• AAPL didn't do much for another 6 months

original question and charts from March 15, 2011

Q4 : What's a better buy - NFLX or AAPL ?

Great trade : Netflix (NFLX) up 40% in a week (1/12)

  

OMG! NFLX and GMCR fall sharply

Last week I wrote about NFLX and GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) vs Netflix (NFLX)) that theey were not quite ready to be bought. NFLX has earnings announcement last night, and it sounds like customers are leaving much more than anyone had anticipated! GMCR also dropped another 5% so far this week.

Here are 15-month weekly charts:

NFLX

GMCR