Unusual Options Activity Tue 10/10/23

The following options are exhibiting notable trading, potentially indicating changing sentiment toward the underlying stocks, and/or potentially representing positioning for increased volatility.

Bullish Call Activity:

• PLUG Oct 7 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 11% (volume: 11.8K, open int: 7370, implied vol: ~99%, prev day implied vol: 93%). 1000 contracts traded in a single transaction. Co is expected to report earnings early November.
• HLF Nov 17.5 calls (volume: 5560, open int: 0, implied vol: ~76%, prev day implied vol: 70%). 4100 contracts traded in a single transaction. Co is confirmed to report earnings November 1 before the open.
• STNE Nov 12 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 5% (volume: 3010, open int: 10, implied vol: ~52%, prev day implied vol: 48%). 3K traded in a single transaction. Co is expected to report earnings mid-November.
• JBLU Oct 5 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 4% (volume: 2260, open int: 500, implied vol: ~12%, prev day implied vol: 10%). Co is expected to report earnings late October.
  

Bearish Put Activity:

• SAVE Jan24 15 puts (volume: 1860, open int: 40, implied vol: ~120%, prev day implied vol: 99%). Co is expected to report earnings late October.
• JOBY Apr24 6 puts (volume: 2050, open int: 0, implied vol: ~68%, prev day implied vol: 65%). Kerrisdale Capital is short JOBY; "In its path to almost certain failure, it's going to incinerate billions of investor capital or just go bust." Co is expected to report earnings early November.
  

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 1.08, VIX: (16.71, -0.99, -5.6%).
October 20 is options expiration -- the last day to trade October equity options.

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) reported earnings on Tue 25 Oct 2016 (b/o)

** charts before earnings **

  

** charts after earnings **

  

 JetBlue Airways misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; issues Q4 & full year outlook  :

• Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.58 per share, $0.02 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.60; revenues rose 2.7% year/year to $1.73 bln vs the $1.73 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Revenue passenger miles for the third quarter increased 7.6% to 11.9 billion on a capacity increase of 6.3%, resulting in a third quarter load factor of 86.3%, a 1 point increase year over year.
• Q4 & full year outlook:  
  • For Q4: Year over year CASM excluding fuel and profit sharing is expected to grow between 4.5% and 6.5%, including a negative impact from hurricane Matthew of approximately half a point. Capacity is expected to increase between 3.0% and 5.0%, including a negative impact from hurricane Matthew of approximately half a point.
  • For FY16: JetBlue expects year over year CASM excluding fuel and profit sharing to grow between 0.0% and 1.5%, consistent with prior guidance. Capacity to increase between 8.5% and 9.0%.

Jetblue Airways (JBLU) reported Q1 earnings on Tue 26 Apr 2016 (b/o)

** charts after earnings **

  

Jetblue Airways beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; provides outlook update:

• Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.59 per share, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.53; revenues rose 6.1% year/year to $1.62 bln vs the $1.62 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Revenue passenger miles for the first quarter increased 14.1% to 11.0 billion on a capacity increase of 14.1%, resulting in a first quarter load factor of 84.2%, a 0.1 point decrease year over year.
• Q2 outlook:
  • Year over year change in CASM excluding fuel and profit sharing is expected to be between negative 0.5% and positive 1.5%. 
  • Capacity is expected to increase between 9.5% and 11.5% in the second quarter 2016.
• FY16 outlook:
  • CASM excluding fuel and profit sharing is expected to increase between zero and 1.5 percent year over year. This represents a 0.5 percentage point reduction to the top end of the previous guidance range.
  • Capacity is expected to increase between 8.5% and 10.5% for the full year, consistent with prior guidance.

JBLU — is it a buy?

• Apr. 13:  Is JBLU a buy?

• Yes;  +8% the following week

JBLU — is it a sell ?

• 3/8/16:  is JBLU a good short?

*** 2 weeks later ***

NO

• JBLU didn't do much for the next 2 weeks
• A much better short would have been 10 days earlier at B.

Great trade : JBLU (2/16)

JBLU — is it a buy?

• Earnings in 6 days on 1/28/16

6 days later, after earnings 

JBLU didn't have a decent UP leg for more than 6 more weeks:

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) reported earnings on 27 Oct 2015 (b/o)

** charts after earnings **

**** a few week later ****

JBLU went nowhere for the next several weeks.....

Great trade : JBLU (9/15)

JBLU went down in the following few weeks