Unusual Options Activity, Thur 7/20/23

The following options are exhibiting notable trading, potentially indicating changing sentiment toward the underlying stocks, and/or potentially representing positioning for increased volatility.

Bullish Call Activity:

• HOG Jul 38 calls (volume: 2060, open int: 20, implied vol: ~81%, prev day implied vol: 48%). Co is confirmed to report earnings July 27 before the open.
• CHWY Jul 37.5 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock down 6% (volume: 4140, open int: 120, implied vol: ~69%, prev day implied vol: 48%). Co is expected to report earnings late August.
• ProShares Short Bitcoin (BITI) Aug 18 calls (volume: 1540, open int: 0, implied vol: ~46%, prev day implied vol: 43%).
  

Bearish Put Activity:

• AR Jul 25 puts (volume: 2590, open int: 0, implied vol: ~60%, prev day implied vol: 53%). Co is confirmed to report earnings July 26 after the close.
• DOW Jul 50 puts (volume: 2820, open int: 40, implied vol: ~39%, prev day implied vol: 37%).  Co is confirmed to report earnings July 25 before the open.
  

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 0.83, VIX: (13.73, -0.03, -0.2%).
Tomorrow is options expiration -- the last day to trade July equity options.

Unusual Options Activity

The following options are exhibiting notable trading, potentially indicating changing sentiment toward the underlying stocks, and/or potentially representing positioning for increased volatility.

Bullish Call Activity:

• CVBF May 12.5 calls (volume: 3090, open int: 0, implied vol: ~183%, prev day implied vol: 108%). Co is expected to report earnings late July.
• ONON May 30 calls (volume: 1660, open int: 150, implied vol: ~82%, prev day implied vol: 76%). Co is confirmed to report earnings May 16 before the open.
• CVS May 71 calls (volume: 3250, open int: 590, implied vol: ~42%, prev day implied vol: 41%). 1200 contracts traded in a single transaction. Co is expected to report earnings early August.

Bearish Put Activity:

• HOG May 35 puts (volume: 2080, open int: 0, implied vol: ~69%, prev day implied vol: 54%). Co is expected to report earnings late July.
• LPSN May 6 puts are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 17% (volume: 2580, open int: 0, implied vol: ~155%, prev day implied vol: 141%). Starboard delivers open letter to LPSN stockholders. Co is confirmed to report earnings Tuesday before the open.

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 0.91, VIX: (17.38, -2.71, -13.5%).
May 19 is options expiration -- the last day to trade May equity options.

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported earnings on Wed 26 Oct 22 (b/o)

** charts after earnings **

 

 

Harley-Davidson beats by $0.38, beats on revs

• Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.78 per share, $0.38 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.40; revenues rose 23.8% year/year to $1.44 bln vs the $1.36 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
• Global motorcycle shipments grew 19 percent in Q3 vs prior year as production largely recovered from the previously announced unexpected production suspension in Q2
  For the full year 2022, the Company reaffirms its guidance and continues to expect: HDMC revenue growth of 5 to 10%. HDMC operating income margin of 11 to 12%. HDFS operating income to decline by 20 to 25%. The Company now expects: Capital investments of $170 million to $190 million from a previously expected spend of $190 million to $220 million.

Earnings this week : Oct 24 - 28, 22 (wk 43)

Monday (Oct 24)

• Morning:  BOH CBU DORM HNI KEX PHG SCHN
• Afternoon: AGNC ARE BRO CADE CDNS CALX CATY CLS CR CCK DFS HSTM HXL HOPE IBTX LOGI MEDP NWE PKG PCH XM RRC SSD SSB AAN TBI WRB WSFS ZION

Tuesday (Oct 25)

• Morning: MMM ADM ARCC AWI BIIB CNC CLF KO GLW FBP FELE GATX GE GM GPK HAL HUBB ITW IVZ JBLU KMB LKFN MCO MSCI NVS NVR ONB PCAR PNR PII POR PHM RTX SAP ST SHW SSTK SFNC SITC SBSI SYF TRU TRN UBS UPS VLO XRX
• Afternoon:  AGYS GOOG AMP AGR AXTA BXP BYD CNI CHX CC CMG CB CSGP EGP WIRE ENPH EQC EQR FFIV FCF FIBK FE HA HIW IEX JNPR KRC LXFR MANH MTDR MAT MXL MSFT NAVI NCR NXGN NEX RNST ROIC SKX SPOT LRN TENB TER TXN TNET TRMK UMBF UHS VBTX VICR V WSBC WH

Wednesday (Oct 26)

• Morning:  APH ADP AVY BXMT BA BOKF BSX BCO BMY BG CHEF CME CSTM CTS DRVN EXP EVR FTV GRMN GD GPI HOG HES HLT IART IQV KBR KHC MAS MNRO COOP EDU NYCB NSC ODFL OTIS OC PAG BPOP PRG PB ROL ROP RES R STX SLGN SLAB SF TMHC TDY TMO TKR TPB UMC VRT WNC WM WING 
• Afternoon:  AEM AGI ALGN AMED NLY AM AR ACGL ASGN AZPN AVT AXS BHE BMRN BOOT CACI CP CCS CHDN FIX CYH CNMD CLB COUR DLR ESI EHC EQT ESS ETD RE FLEX F FORM FBHS FWRD ULCC GL GSHD GGG PI INVH JBT KLAC LC MMSI MTH META MEOH MAA MOH MSA MUSA MYRG NTGR ORLY OII OLN OMF PGRE PTEN PEGA PPC PLXS QS RJF SLM SEIC NOW SLP SNBR STC NOVA FTI TDOC TROX TYL UDR UCTT URI UPWK VFC VMI WOLF

Thursday (Oct 27)

• Morning: AOS ALLE ALGM ALNY MO AEP AMT BUD HOUS AIT ARCH AMBP ARES ABG AN BAX BWA BFH BC CCJ CRS CARR CAT CBZ CBRE CHKP CMS CNX CMCO CMCSA CFR DAN DTE EME EXLS EXTR FAF FCFS FISV FCN GEL GEO GBX HEES HTZ HON INMD INSM IP ITGR JHG KDP KIM LH LAZ LII LECO LIN LKQ MMP HZO MA MCD MDC MPW MRK NTCT NOC NVCR OPCH OSIS OSTK PATK PBF PRFT PDS RS SPGI SNDR SHOP SAH SO LUV SWK STM TROW TECK TFX TNC TXT SHYF TW TNL TPH TRS VLY VC WST WDC WEX WTW XEL
• Afternoon:  EGHT AMZN ABCB AAPL ATR AJG AX BIO CPT COF CSL CWST COHU COLM OFC CUZ CUBE DECK DXCM DRQ EMN EW ELME EIG ENVA EXPO FHI FSLR FTAI GLPI GILD LOPE HIG HUBG INTC KNSL KN LMAT LPLA LTC MGRC MERC MTX MHK MPWR NBHC NATI NOV OIS ONTO CASH PEB PFSI PINS PXD PFG PTCT RRR RSG RMD SGEN SWN SPSC SSNC STAG TMUS TEX TXRH TVTX X VRSN VRTX VICI WY AUY ZEN

Friday (Oct 28)  

• Morning:  ABBV AB AON AVTR B BLMN BAH GTLS CHTR CVX CHD CL CRTO DVA DTM XOM FHB FTS GNTX GWW IMO JKS LYB NWL NMRK NEE NEP NVT PIPR PFS SNY SMP SLCA WETF

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported earnings on Tue 2 Feb 21 (b/o)

** charts after earnings **

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harley-Davidson misses by $0.66, misses on revs

• Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.44 per share, $0.66 worse than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.22; revenues fell 32.4% year/year to $725 mln vs the $770.5 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

Earnings this week : Feb 1 - 5, 21 (wk 5)

Monday (Feb 1)

• Morning:  ON OTIS TMO
• Afternoon: ARE CBT CRUS CACC EZPW FN HLIT IBTX KMPR KMT KRC NXPI OMCL PCH RMBS SKY VRTX WWD

Tuesday (Feb 2)

• Morning: BABA ALGM ABG ATKR ATHM TECH BP BR CTLT COP ETN EMR ENTG AQUA XOM RACE BEN GWW GPK HAE HLNE HOG HCA HUBB IDXX IMO LII LITE MHO MMP MAN MPC MCK MDC MPLX PFE PBI PINC ST SIRI SYY UPS WDR
• Afternoon:  ATGE GOOG AMZN AMCR DOX AMGN APAM ATO EPAY BDN BRKS CMG CB EA FEYE FBHS GL ICHR MANH MTCH MRCY PACW PKI POWI SANM SCSC STE TENB VIAV

Wednesday (Feb 3)

• Morning:  ABBV APO APTV AVY BIIB BSX BIP CPRI CHKP CNHI DT EPD EVR HWM HUM INGR LGND LAD MTOR MIME MSGS PFGC SC SNDR SMG SLAB SPOT TGI VNE WNC
• Afternoon:  ADTN AFL ALGN ALGT ALL UHAL AFG ANGI ASH AVB AVTR AXTA CHNG CCMP CTSH CTVA CSGS ELF EBAY ECHO PLUS FORM GRUB THG HI IEX INOV IAC KLAC KLIC LCI LNC MXL MDU MET MAA MWA MUSA NTGR PYPL QRVO QCOM RYN RGLD SIMO SU TSE TBI TTMI UGI VVV YUMC

Thursday (Feb 4)

• Morning: ABB WMS AGCO APD ALXN ABC AME ARW BLL BAX BCE BDX BV BMY GOOS CG CI CLX CMS COR CMI GPI HSY HIMX IP ICE JHG LANC LEA LSPD MMS MPW MRK MDP MSGN NYT NJR NS ODFL PH PTEN BTU PENN PM PBH DGX RL RDS.A SBH SNA SR TPR TKR TW VSTO WD WEC XYL YUM
• Afternoon:  ATVI AINV BHE BILL CPT CSL COLM OFC DECK DLX DXC ENVA ESS EXPO FLT F FTNT FTV GILD GPRO HIG HUBG KN LGF.A LPLA MTD MCHP MTX MOBL MPWR MSI NFG NBIX NEWR NWSA NLOK NOV OHI ONTO OTEX PCTY PTON PFSI PINS PLT POST PFPT PRO PRU SKX SKYW SNAP SYNA TMUS TDC TWST U UNM VREX WERN WWE WYNN ZEN

Friday (Feb 5)  

• Morning:  ADNT AON BERY CAH CBOE ROAD EL EAF HRC ITW LAZ REGN SNY SPB TT ZBH

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported earnings on Tue 27 Oct 20 (b/o)

 ** charts after earnings **

 

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported earnings on Tue 18 July 17 (b/o)

** charts before earnings **

 

** charts after earnings **

Harley-Davidson beats by $0.10, misses on revs; lowers FY17 guidance:

• Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.48 per share, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.38; revenues fell 5.6% year/year to $1.58 bln vs the $1.6 bln Capital IQ Consensus. Shipments -6.7% to 81.4K vs. 80-85K guidance. Harley-Davidson retail motorcycle sales in the U.S. were down 9.3 percent compared to the year-ago quarter, with the overall U.S. industry down for the same period.
• Harley-Davidson is revising its full-year guidance for motorcycle shipments and now expects to ship 241,000 to 246,000 motorcycles to dealers worldwide in 2017, which is down ~6 percent to 8 percent from 2016. The company had previously provided full-year shipment guidance of flat to down modestly in comparison to 2016.
• In the third quarter, the company expects to ship 39,000 to 44,000 motorcycles, which is down ~10 percent to 20 percent from 2016.
• The company now expects full-year 2017 operating margin to be down ~1 percentage point compared to 2016. The company continues to expect 2017 capital expenditures to be $200 million to $220 million.

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported earnings on Tue 18 Apr 17 (b/o)

** charts before earnings **

 

** charts after earnings **

 

Harley-Davidson beats by $0.03, misses on revs; reaffirms FY17 guidance:

• Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.05 per share, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.02; revenues fell 15.7% year/year to $1.33 bln vs the $1.35 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Motorcycle shipments were 70,831 vs. guidance for approximately 66,000 to 71,000
• First quarter worldwide? retail sales of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles were down driven by lower sales in the U.S. As we expected, U.S. sales were adversely impacted by soft industry sales and the company's decision to reduce shipments of model year 2017 motorcycles. This decision helped dealers focus on selling down their model year 2016 retail inventory. International retail sales were down behind weak sales in Asia Pacific, partially offset by strong growth in Latin America. Retail sales in EMEA and Canada were both down as they compared against strong prior year growth of 8.8 percent and 16.3 percent, respectively.
• For 2017, Harley-Davidson continues to anticipate full-year motorcycle shipments to be flat to down modestly in comparison to 2016. Harley-Davidson continues to expect full-year 2017 operating and gross margin as a percent of revenue to be approximately in line with 2016. The company continues to expect that full-year 2017 capital expenditures will be $200 million to $220 million.
• In the second quarter of 2017, the company expects to ship approximately 80,000 to 85,000 motorcycles.

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported earnings on Tue 31 Jan 17 (b/o)

** charts after earnings **

 

Harley-Davidson misses by $0.04, misses on revs; sees FY17 shipments flat to down modestly with gross margin flat:

• Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.27 per share, $0.04 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.31; revenues fell 7.4% year/year to $933 mln vs the $975.31 mln Capital IQ Consensus. 
• Shipments -12% to 42.4K vs. 44.2-49.2K guidance. In the fourth quarter, worldwide retail sales of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles declined 0.5 percent versus the prior year behind modest declines in some international markets partially offset by slight growth in the U.S.
• For 2017, Harley-Davidson anticipates full-year motorcycle shipments to be flat to down modestly in comparison to 2016.
• In the first quarter of 2017, Harley-Davidson expects to ship ~66,000 to 71,000 motorcycles.
• Harley-Davidson expects full-year 2017 operating and gross margin as a percent of revenue to be ~in line with 2016 and its full-year effective tax rate to be ~34.5 percent. The company anticipates 2017 capital expenditures of $200 million to $220 million

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported 4Q earnings on Thur 28 Jan 16 (b/o)

** charts before earnings **

 

** charts after earnings **

 

** 6 weeks later  **

Harley-Davidson beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides for 1-3% shipment growth in 2016 :

• Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.22 per share, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.21; revenues fell 2.3% year/year to $1.01 bln vs the $1.03 bln Capital IQ Consensus. Throughout 2015, Harley-Davidson retail motorcycle sales were adversely affected by heightened competitive pressures including those arising from shifts in world currencies.
• Co shipped 48,149 motorcycles during the quarter, vs. guidance for 47,000 to 52,000 motorcycles.
• HOG expects to ship 269,000 to 274,000 motorcycles in 2016, an approximate 1-3% increase from 2015 shipments.
• For Q1, the company expects to ship 78,000 to 83,000 motorcycles compared to 79,589 motorcycles shipped in the year-ago period.
• The company expects full-year 2016 operating margin of approximately 16 to 17 percent for the Motorcycles segment.
• The company expects 2016 capital expenditures for Harley-Davidson, Inc. of $255 million to $275 million.

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported earnings on Tue 20 Oct 15 (b/o)

 ** charts before earnings **

 

** charts after earnings **