Unusual Options Activity, Fri 6/16/23

The following options are exhibiting notable trading, potentially indicating changing sentiment toward the underlying stocks, and/or potentially representing positioning for increased volatility.

Bullish Call Activity:

• KEY Jun 10 calls (volume: 2370, open int: 520, implied vol: ~102%, prev day implied vol: 63%). 1500 contracts traded in a single transaction. Co is confirmed to report earnings July 20 before the open.
• CRNC Jul 40 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 5% (volume: 2720, open int: 0, implied vol: ~59%, prev day implied vol: 46%). Co is expected to report earnings early August.
• LVS Jun 61 calls (volume: 3190, open int: 80, implied vol: ~34%, prev day implied vol: 32%). 1300 contracts traded in a single transaction. Co is expecting to report earnings mid-July.
• WBA Jun 32.5 calls (volume: 11.5K, open int: 200, implied vol: ~25%, prev day implied vol: 24%). Co is confirmed to report earnings Jun 27 before the open.
  

Bearish Put Activity:

• PCG Jun 15 puts (volume: 1880, open int: 410, implied vol: ~25%, prev day implied vol: 22%). Co is expected to report earnings early August.
• DBX Jun 25.5 puts (volume: 1500, open int: 350, implied vol: ~34%, prev day implied vol: 32%). Co is expecting to report earnings early August.
  

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 0.88, VIX: (13.74, -0.76, -5.2%).
Today is options expiration -- the last day to trade June equity options.

-=Dropbox (DBX) reported earnings on Thur 7 Nov 19 (a/h)

Dropbox beats by $0.02, beats on revs
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.13 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.11; revenues rose 18.8% year/year to $428.2 mln vs the $423.48 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

=Dropbox (DBX) reported earnings on Thur 21 Feb 2019 (a/h)

Dropbox beats by $0.02, beats on revs;

• Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.10 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.08; revenues rose 23.0% year/year to $375.9 mln vs the $370.0 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus and vs prior guidance of $367-370 mln.
  • Non-GAAP operating margin improved to 11.0% vs prior guidance of 9-10%. This compares to 3.3% in the prior year period.
• Note: DBX typically guides for revenue and non-GAAP operating margin on the call for the next quarter and full year.

Dropbox: Earnings Preview

Dropbox (DBX), which operates a cloud-based document sharing platform, is set to report Q4 results today after the close (last quarter they released at 16:03 ET, or three minutes after the close) with a conference call to follow at 5pm ET. DBX made its IPO debut in March 2018, so this is just its fourth earnings report as a public company.

• The CapitalIQ consensus estimate for Q4 non-GAAP EPS is $0.08. The revenue consensus estimate is $370 mln. Note: DBX typically guides for revenue and non-GAAP operating margin on the call for the next quarter and full year. On the last call, DBX guided for Q4 revenue of $367-370 mln and non-GAAP operating margin of 9-10%.
• So how does DBX make money? It uses a freemium model, meaning they offer free products with the goal of turning those people into paying customers with more advanced product offerings. The company has also been focused on driving higher adoption of its premium individual subscription plan. While it's tough to be profitable when you're giving stuff away for free, the good thing is that all these free users create a pool of potential paying customers. It's early, but DBX seems to be converting these free users at a good enough of pace. And DBX has increasingly been targeting business customers, broadening its focus beyond consumers. A key topic will be DBX's success in this area.
• As we said, as a recent IPO, there is not a lot of history in terms of how well it performs relative to consensus estimates. However, in its first three quarters as a public company, DBX reported EPS upside of $0.03 in Q1 and $0.05 in both Q2 and Q3, with nice revenue upside in all quarters.
• DBX has talked about how one of the most important ways it's improving its platform is through machine intelligence, which DBX calls DBXi. As content gets created on an increasing variety of applications (email, texts, documents, spreadsheets etc.), it's getting more difficult to find things. DBX has introduced two new machine intelligence initiatives to help solve these problems:
• First, DBX upgraded its search engine with an improved architecture called Nautilus. It delivers a more personalized search experience by surfacing the most relevant results. Second, DBX has made strides in making images searchable. Most tools cannot find text and images, but customers use images a lot. DBX has been scanning these docs to make them searchable. Any further discussion on these issues will be of interest to investors.
• Finally, the stock price has been mostly languishing since the IPO, although it has been trending higher since mid-December along with the overall market. The main concern with DBX is how well they are going to be able to covert free customers to paying customers. Once investors are confident in DBX's ability to do that, the stock could get on a nice uptrend. (PVIEW)

Earnings this week : Feb. 18 - 22, 2019 (wk 8)

Earnings confirmed to report this week:

Monday (Feb 18) 

• (Holiday) U.S. Market Closed

Tuesday (Feb 19)

• Morning: AAP ALLE WTR AAWW CLR CTB CEQP ECL FELE FDP GDI GPC HLX HIMX HEP HOLI JELD LDOS DOOR MDT NEO NBL SAGE SCI SITE TTS TSEM RIG USAC WMT
• Afternoon: ACC AWK CDNS CRMT CXW DVN  FIVN HLF HST HSTM HVT INST KAR KRG LC LMAT LNTH LZB NTB NVTA RARE SSTI TILE TVTY TXRH VRSK WIRE

Wednesday (Feb 20)

• Morning: ADI AROC BHC BDC CNDT CVS ETR FMS GCI GRMN GEL GVA HSIC HFC IPHS I LAMR NI OMI OC QUAD SAH SO TRGP VNTR VPG WIX WWW
• Afternoon: A ALB ATR AXTI CAI CAKE CAR  CBLK CDE CECO CHE CLI CONE CUTR CYH FLS FTI GDDY GDOT GHDX IAG ICLR INOV IVR JACK KALU LASR LOPE MANT MMI NDSN NE NTES NUVA O OR PAAS PEGA PI QEP RGR ROG RPT SAM SEDG TMST TRN TSLX TYL UFPI VIPS VMI WK WPG WPX WRI XEC Y

Thursday (Feb 21)

• Morning:  BRC DIN DLPH DPZ FND GIL GOGO HL HRL ITGR NCLH NEM PLAB PWR RGEN ROCK RS SFM SGMs STOR TFX VG WEN
• Afternoon:  AAOI ACIA ADSW AL AMH ANIK APPN ATUS BEAT BIDU BJRI BMRN BOOM BYD CASA CATM CBPX CENX CHSP COLD CUBE CWST CZR DBX DXCM EBS ECOL ED EGO  ENV EVRG EXAS FIX FLR FSLR GMED HALO HCC HPE HTGC INFN INT INTU IQ KEYS KHC LNT LPSN MATX MDRX NCMI NVRO OLED PAGS PBA PE PRA RMAX ROKU SBAC SEM SSRM STMP SWM TGH TTD TXMD UCTT VERI VLRS XOG

Friday (Feb 22)

• Morning: AN ASIX B CNK COG COT ERF ETM HMSY ITT MGA MNTA PNW RCM RUTH RY TDS TVPT USM W WPC

=Dropbox (DBX) reported earnings on Thur 9 Aug 2018 (a/h)

Dropbox beats by $0.05, beats on revs; COO stepping down;  

• Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.11 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.06; revenues rose 27.2% year/year to $339.2 mln vs the $330.9 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Paying users totaled 11.9 million, as compared to 9.9 million for the same period last year. Average revenue per paying user was $116.66, as compared to $111.19 for the same period last year.
• GAAP gross margin was 73.6%, as compared to 65.4% in the same period last year. Non-GAAP gross margin was 74.5%, as compared to 66.7% in the same period last year.
• Dropbox also announced that Dennis Woodside is stepping down as Chief Operating Officer. He'll remain at the company until early September and serve as an advisor through the end of the year. The company does not plan to hire another COO.

-=Dropbox (DBX) reported earnings on Thur 10 May 2018 (a/h)

Dropbox beats by $0.03, beats on revs; 

• Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.08 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 27.6% year/year to $316.3 mln vs the $309.23 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Paying users totaled 11.5 million, as compared to 9.3 million for the same period last year. Average revenue per paying user was $114.30, as compared to $110.79 for the same period last year.
• GAAP gross margin was 61.9%, as compared to 62.3% in the same period last year. Non-GAAP gross margin was 74.2%, as compared to 63.5% in the same period last year.
• Dropbox will provide forward-looking guidance in connection with this quarterly earnings announcement on their conference call, webcast, and investor relations website.