Unusual Options Activity Tue 5/14/24

The following options are exhibiting notable trading, potentially indicating changing sentiment toward the underlying stocks, and/or potentially representing positioning for increased volatility.

Bullish Call Activity:

• PLUG Weekly May24 4 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 24% (volume: 2900, open int: 840, implied vol: ~168%, prev day implied vol: 89%). Co is expected to report earnings early August.
• LCID May 3.5 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 11% (volume: 31.3K, open int: 19.0K, implied vol: ~123%, prev day implied vol: 79%). 1500 contracts traded in a single transaction. Co is expected to report earnings late July.
• CCL May 15 calls (volume: 2070, open int: 28.1K, implied vol: ~38%, prev day implied vol: 35%). Co is expected to report earnings mid-June.

Bearish Put Activity:

• GME May 20 puts are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 33% (volume: 13.3K, open int: 10.6K, implied vol: ~342%, prev day implied vol: 135%). Stock seeing strong gains amid meme interest. Co is expected to report earnings early June.
• NU May 10.5 puts (volume: 6070, open int: 980, implied vol: ~42%, prev day implied vol: 36%). Co is expected to report earnings early August.

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 0.89, VIX: (13.60, +0.00, +0.0%).
This week is options expiration -- Friday, May 17th is the last day to trade May equity options.

Unusual Options Activity Fri 11/3/23

The following options are exhibiting notable trading, potentially indicating changing sentiment toward the underlying stocks, and/or potentially representing positioning for increased volatility.

Bullish Call Activity:

• U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) Nov 16.5 calls (volume: 31.3K, open int: 10, implied vol: ~28%, prev day implied vol: 26%).
• CCL Dec 13 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 6% (volume: 7680, open int: 260, implied vol: ~47%, prev day implied vol: 46%). 3130 contracts traded in a single transaction. Co is expected to report earnings mid-December.
• ASO Nov 48 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 4% (volume: 3810, open int: 0, implied vol: ~41%, prev day implied vol: 40%). 3810 contracts traded in a single transaction. FBI released NICS data. Co is expected to report earnings early December.
  

Bearish Put Activity:

• SKIN Nov 4 puts are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 8% (volume: 7700, open int: 10, implied vol: ~117%, prev day implied vol: 97%). 7500 contracts traded in a single transaction. Co is expected to report earnings early November.
• PLUG Nov 6.5 puts are seeing interest with the underlying stock up 5% (volume: 4820, open int: 70, implied vol: ~122%, prev day implied vol: 111%). Co is confirmed to report earnings Thursday, November 9 after the close.
  

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 1.00, VIX: (15.18, -0.48, -3.7%).
November 17 is options expiration -- the last day to trade November equity options.

-=Carnival (CCL) reported earnings on Thur 26 Sept 19 (b/o)

Carnival beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus

Reports Q3 (Aug) earnings of $2.63 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $2.54; revenues rose 11.9% year/year to $6.53 bln vs the $6.14 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

• Gross revenue yields (revenue per available lower berth day or "ALBD") increased 5.6 percent. In constant currency, net revenue yields decreased 0.5 percent, in line with June guidance of down slightly to flat.

Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.46-0.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.66 S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

• Fourth quarter constant currency net revenue yields are expected to be down 2.0 to 3.0 percent compared to the prior year.

Issues FY 20 guidance: "Cumulative advanced bookings for the first half of 2020 are ahead of the prior year at prices that are in line compared to 2019 on a comparable basis. Since June, both booking volumes and prices for the first half of next year have been running lower than the prior year. For full year 2020, the company expects capacity growth of approximately 7 percent."

Earnings this week : Sept 23 - 27, 19 (wk 39)

Monday (Sept 23)

• Morning: CMD UXIN

Tuesday (Sept 24)

• Morning: AZO BB KMX INFO JBL MANU NEOG NIO
• Afternoon: CTAS NKE SNX

Wednesday (Sept 25)

• Morning: DAVA WOR
• Afternoon: AIR FUL KBH

Thursday (Sept 26)

• Morning: ACN ATU CAG FDS, CCL
• Afternoon: CAMP MTN MU PRGS UEPS

Friday (Sept 27) 

• None

Notable earnings reports:: Ascena Retail Group (NASDAQ:ASNA) on September 23; Nike (NKE), Blackberry (BB), AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), Nio (NYSE:NIO) and CarMax (NYSE:KMX) on September 24; AAR (NYSE:AIR) and KB Home (NYSE:KBH) on September 25; Micron (MU), Carnival (NYSE:CCL), Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) and ConAgra Brands (NYSE:CAG) on September 26.

***

President Trump will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the week ahead at the annual United Nations General Assembly amid high expectations that a trade deal will be finalized. Heading into the meeting, Tokyo reportedly wants written assurances from Washington that it will not impose hefty tariffs on its auto exports before a finalized deal on farm goods and digital trade is inked. The vibe from the Trump-Abe meeting could impact trading on Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC). Meanwhile, economic reports on new home sales, durable goods and consumer spending will give investors a good idea where Q3 stands, while the final reading on Q2 GDP will put a period on the last quarter.

-=Carnival (CCL) reported earnings on Mon 25 June 18 (b/o)

Carnival beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides AugQ EPS below consensus; guides FY18 EPS below consensus 

• Reports Q2 (May) earnings of $0.68 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 better thanthe Capital IQ Consensus of $0.59; revenues rose 10.4% year/year to $4.36 bln vs the $4.32 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Co issues downside guidance for Q3 (Aug), sees EPS of $2.25-2.29, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.48 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
• Co issues downside guidance for FY18, sees EPS of $4.15-4.25, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $4.36 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • 2018 Outlook: Cumulative advanced bookings for the next three quarters are in line with the prior year at higher prices. Since March, booking volumes for the next three quarters have been running slightly ahead of prior year at prices that are in line with the prior year.

peers: Norwegian (NCLH) -2.5% and Royal Carribeean (RCL) -2.3%

Carnival (CCL) reported earnings on Tue 19 Dec 2017 (b/o)

** charts after earnings **

Carnival beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY18 mid-point below consensus 

• Reports Q4 (Nov) earnings of $0.63 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.51; revenues rose 8.2% year/year to $4.26 bln vs the $4.15 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.37-0.41, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.47 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
• Co issues guidance for FY18, sees EPS of $4.00-4.30, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $4.28 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
• Adjusted net income excludes unrealized gains and losses on fuel derivatives and other net charges, totaling $94 million in net gains for 4Q 2017 and $118 million of net gains for 4Q 2016. Gross revenue yields increased 6.8 percent.
• In constant currency, net revenue yields increased 4.2 percent for 4Q 2017, better than September guidance of up 1.5 to 2.5 percent. Changes in fuel prices (including realized fuel derivatives) and currency exchange rates decreased earnings by $0.03 per share. As a result of higher fuel prices, forecasted fuel costs for the full year 2018 are expected to increase approximately $117 million compared to the prior year, net of realized fuel derivatives, reducing earnings by $0.16 per share.
• Q1 Guidance Details: Net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD in constant currency for the first quarter of 2018 are expected to increase by approximately 2.0 to 3.0 percent compared to the prior year.
• FY18 Guidance Details: "Despite booking disruptions from this year's multiple hurricanes, we are still heading into 2018 with a stronger base of business and higher prices than last year. We have numerous efforts underway to keep the momentum going in 2018 and beyond, from our innovative approaches to increase consideration for cruising, including our recently announced partnership with Univision, to the further roll-out of our state-of-the-art revenue management system. In 2018 we also look forward to the delivery of four new cutting-edge ships, Carnival Horizon, Seabourn Ovation, AIDAnova, and Nieuw Statendam to further our strategic fleet enhancement program." 

Carnival (CCL) increases quarterly dividend to $0.45/share

Carnival increases quarterly dividend to $0.45/share from $0.40/share

• Div/yield 0.45/2.70

 

CCL — is it a buy?

• May 2:  Is CCL a buy?

• 10 days later

• The following months

Carnival Corp. (CCL) reported earnings Wed 30 March 2016 (b/o)

** charts before earnings **

 

** charts after earnings **

  

• One month later:

Carnival beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line; raises low end of FY16 EPS, in-line  :

• Reports Q1 (Feb) earnings of $0.39 per share, excluding non-recurring items,$0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.32; revenues rose 3.4% year/year to $3.65 bln vs the $3.63 bln Capital IQ Consensus. 
  • Net revenue yields (net revenue per available lower berth day or "ALBD") increased 5.7 percent in constant currency, which was better than the company's December guidance of up 3.5 to 4.5 percent. Gross revenue yields decreased 0.4 percent in current dollars due to changes in currency exchange rates. Net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD increased 1.6 percent in constant currency and were lower than December guidance, up 2.5 to 3.5 percent, due to the timing of expenses between quarters. Gross cruise costs including fuel per ALBD in current dollars decreased 6.0 percent due to changes in fuel prices and currency exchange rates.
• Co issues in-line guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.34-0.38, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.37 Capital IQ Consensus; constant currency net revenue yields are expected to increase 1.5 to 2.5 percent compared to the prior year. Net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD for the second quarter are expected to be up 0.5 to 1.5 percent on a constant currency basis compared to the prior year.
• Co issues in-line guidance for FY16, raises EPS to $3.20-3.40 from $3.10-3.40, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.37 Capital IQ Consensus; reaffirms net rev yields +3%; net cruise costs excl. fuel / ALBD +2%.
• Peers: RCL, NCLH.

Long trade : CCL (12/15)

• The following months: