Unusual Options Activity

The following options are exhibiting notable trading, potentially indicating changing sentiment toward the underlying stocks, and/or potentially representing positioning for increased volatility.

Bullish Call Activity:

• SPWR Apr 13 calls (volume: 3020, open int: 260, implied vol: ~125%, prev day implied vol: 71%). Co is expected to report earnings early May.
• RUN Apr 18.5 calls (volume: 1880, open int: 270, implied vol: ~135%, prev day implied vol: 88%). Co is confirmed to report earnings May 3 after the close.
• ACI May 21 calls (volume: 1770, open int: 460, implied vol: ~20%, prev day implied vol: 17%). Co is confirmed to report earnings April 11 before the open.
  

Bearish Put Activity:

• LNC May 17.5 puts (volume: 13.2K, open int: 120, implied vol: ~89%, prev day implied vol: 82%). We noted activity in the Jul 22.5 puts earlier this week (see 4/4 13:20 OPTNX). Co is confirmed to report earnings May 9 after the close.
  

Sentiment: The CBOE Put/Call ratio is currently: 1.00, VIX: (18.67, +0.98, +1.0%).
April 21 is options expiration -- the last day to trade April equity options.

Albertsons (ACI) reported earnings on Mon 18 Oct 21 (b/o)

 ** charts after earnings **

Albertsons increases quarterly dividend to $0.12/share from $0.10/share

Albertsons beats by $0.19, beats on revs; raises FY22 EPS above consensus

• Reports Q2 (Aug) earnings of $0.64 per share, $0.19 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.45; revenues rose 4.7% year/year to $16.51 bln vs the $15.85 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
• Co issues upside guidance for FY22, sees EPS of 2.50-2.60 vs. $2.33 S&P Capital IQ Consensus (previously $2.20 to $2.30 per share).
  • Identical sales in fiscal 2021 in the range of (2.5%) to (3.5%) (previously (5%) to (6%)), representing two-year stacked growth of 13.4% to 14.4% (previously 10.9% to 11.9%)

Earnings this week : Oct 18 - 22, 21 (wk 42)

Monday (Oct 18)

• Morning:  ACI PHG STT
• Afternoon: ELS FNB HXL STLD ZION

Tuesday (Oct 19)

• Morning: BK CBSH DOV ERIC FITB FMBI HAL IRDM JNJ KSU MAN ONB PM PG SBNY SI SYF SNV TRV
• Afternoon:  CNI FULT HWC IBKR ISRG MRTN NBHC NFLX OMC LRN UAL UCBI WDFC WTFC

Wednesday (Oct 20)

• Morning:  ABT ANTM ASML BKR BIIB BOKF CP CFG CMA FHN FCFS KNX LAD MTB MKTX MSM NDAQ NEE NEP NTRS BPOP VZ WSO WGO
• Afternoon:  CNS CCI CSX CVBF DFS EFX EEFT FR GL GGG IBM KALU KMI LRCX LSTR LVS OMF PPG XM REXR RLI SLM SEIC SLG STL FTI THC TSLA TCBI UFPI UMPQ VMI

Thursday (Oct 21)

• Morning: ABB ALK ALLE ALLY AAL T AN BANC BKU BX GTLS CROX DHR DOW EWBC FAF FCX GATX GPC HRI HOMB IPG IQV KEY LNN MMC NUE NVR PPBI POOL PDS DGX RCI SASR SNA SON LUV TSCO TPH TRN UNP VLO WBS
• During Market Hours: WABC
• Afternoon:  ASB OZK BJRI SAM CSL CE CMG BOOM FFBC GBCI INTC MAT OLN PBCT PSMT RHI SNAP SIVB VICR WRB WAL WHR WSFS

Friday (Oct 22)  

• Morning:  AIMC AXP ALV CLF FHB GNTX HCA HON RF ROP SLB STX SMPL VFC

Arch Coal (ACI) reported earnings Mon 9 Nov 2015 (before open)

** charts before earnings **

** charts after earnings **

Arch Coal beats by $2.15, misses on revs; high stock piles to dampen thermal coal demand and pricing throughout 2016 :

• Reports Q3 (Sep) loss of $3.38 per share, excluding non-recurring items,$2.15 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($5.53); revenues fell 7.2% year/year to $688.5 mln vs the $697.77 mln Capital IQ Consensus; adj. EBITDA +87% $135 mln.
• Arch has elected to terminate its $250 million revolver which will become effective on Nov 11, 2015. The co had no borrowings under its revolver and no intention to borrow under it. On a pro-forma basis, taking into consideration the termination of the revolver, Arch had liquidity of $704.4 million at September 30, 2015 with $694.5 million of that in cash and liquid securities.
• Arch now expects domestic thermal coal consumption to decline by 95 million tons during 2015. While supply cuts are well underway and will reduce U.S. thermal coal production markedly during the year, Arch nevertheless expects stockpiles at U.S. power generators to climb to more than 185 million tons, or over 90 days of supply, at year-end. These inflated levels are expected to dampen thermal coal demand and pricing throughout next year.
• Conditions in U.S. metallurgical coal markets remain challenging as well due to deteriorating global steel demand, continued strong output from Australia and a strong U.S. dollar that hinders U.S. competitiveness.

Q : What's a better buy - MOS or ACI ?

A:  Analysis emailed on 3/24/11.