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Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Market update: Stocks tumble following technical breach (10 October 2018)

Stocks tumbled on Wednesday as bond yields held steady at multi-year highs and amid continued concerns about economic and earnings growth prospects. The S&P 500 lost 3.3%, extending its losing streak to five sessions in a row, which is its longest losing streak since 2016. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite also fell sharply, losing 3.2% and 4.1%, respectively.





At the opening bell, the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average (2879), which has been an area of support for the market this week. Selling continued from there, with the S&P 500 extending its opening loss of 0.5% more than six times over. However, the selling didn't feel fast and panicky; rather, it was somewhat orderly in nature, which underscores the idea that it was largely a risk-reduction effort, whereby market participants are cutting their exposure to stocks, cognizant that earnings growth estimates are at risk with rising interest rates, tariff actions, and higher costs.

Other key technical breaches included the Dow falling below its 50-day moving average, the Nasdaq falling below its 200-day moving average, and the Russell 2000 falling below its 200-day moving average.

High-growth FANG names, which have been key leadership stocks for this bull market, struggled mightily on Wednesday; Netflix (NFLX 325.89, -29.82) lost 8.4%, Amazon (AMZN 1755.25, -115.07) lost 6.2%, Facebook (FB 151.38, -6.52) lost 4.1%, Apple (AAPL 216.36, -10.51) lost 4.6%, and Alphabet (GOOG 1081.22, -57.60) lost 5.1%.

Information technology was the worst-performing S&P sector on Wednesday, tumbling 4.8%, but growth-sensitive, cyclical groups underperformed on the whole, with financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, energy, and communications services all losing between 3.0% and 3.9% apiece. None of the 11 S&P sectors were able to advance on Wednesday, but the defensive-oriented utilities (-0.5%) group did manage to keep its loss in check.

Interestingly, the equity sell off did not lead to higher demand for "risk-free" U.S. Treasuries. In fact, bonds declined with stocks on Wednesday, with investors presumably opting to go to cash instead. The benchmark 10-yr yield, which moves inversely to the price of the 10-yr Treasury note, advanced two basis points to 3.23%, closing near a seven-year high.

Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index, often referred to as the "investor fear gauge", spiked 36.2% to 21.73, its highest level since late March.

Rotation
Some market participants argue that investors are shifting from growth-fueled strategies to value shares, which have been out of favor as shares of growthy, techy companies have soared. Investors tend to turn to overlooked value companies in the later stages of an economic cycle, before a recession, market participants say.





Thursday, Oct 11, 18: Wall Street extends Wednesday's drop

Wall Street extended Wednesday's tumble on Thursday in a volatile day of trading. The major averages settled notably lower, with the S&P 500 losing 2.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 1.3%. With Thursday marking its sixth straight decline, the S&P 500 is now down 5.5% for the week and is 6.9% below its September 20 record close.

Financial giants JPMorgan Chase (JPM 108.13, -3.34), Citigroup (C 68.38, -1.57), and Wells Fargo (WFC 51.44, -0.99) will unoffically kick off the third quarter earnings season on Friday morning.

Also of note, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked once again on Thursday, jumping 11.8% to 25.57, marking its highest level since February.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 got into trouble once again on Thursday, closing below its 200-day moving average (2766) for the first time since March, after breaching its 50-day moving average the day before. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell below its 200-day moving average (25140) and the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 stayed below theirs.


US markets close





  • 2018-10-12 Friday:  European and US markets 



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