=Autodesk (ADSK) reported earnings on Tue 6 March 2018 (a/h)

Autodesk beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY19 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus 

• Reports Q4 (Jan) loss of $0.09 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.11); revenues rose 15.7% year/year to $554 mln vs the $544.74 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.01-0.04, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.16 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q1 revs of $550-560 mln vs. $585.06 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
• Co issues downside guidance for FY19, sees EPS of $0.77-0.95, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.24 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY19 revs of $2.455-2.505 mln vs. $2.55 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Sees billings in the range of $2.72-2.82 bln. Net sub adds are expected to be in the range of 500-550K.
  • Guidance is under accounting rule ASC 606.

Autodesk up 11% testing all-time highs following earnings on strong subscription/ARR metrics 

• While EPS and revenue guidance for Q1 and FY19 were below estimates, the subscriber and ARR (annual recurring revenue) growth/outlook is strong.
• Subscription plan ARR +106% to $1.18 billion. Total ARR +25% to $2.05 billion vs. $2.032-2.065 bln guidance. Subscription plan subscriptions increased 371,000 from the third quarter of fiscal 2018 to 2.27 million. Subscription plan subscriptions benefited from 168,000 maintenance subscribers that converted to product subscription under the maintenance-to-subscription program. Total subscriptions increased 127,000 from the third quarter of fiscal 2018 to 3.72 million at the end of the fourth quarter.
• Sees FY19 total ARR up 28-30% (29-31% under old accounting rules) vs +28% consensus; net sub adds 500-550K from 3.72 mln (vs. +20% Y/Y last year).