SolarCity (SCTY) reported 4Q earnings on Tue 9 Feb 2016 (a/h)

** charts before earnings **

 

** charts after earnings **

  

SolarCity reports Q4, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus :

• Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.04 per share, which may not be comparable to the Capital IQ Consensus of ($2.59); revenues rose 60.8% year/year to $115.48 mln vs the $105.67 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • MW Installed: Record 272 MW, up 54% year-over-year (Guidance 280-300 MW)
  • MW Deployed: 253 MW, up 44% year-over-year
  • Value of MW Deployed under Energy Contracts: $3.64 per watt at a 6% discount rate ($3.32 per watt contracted and $0.32 per watt estimated renewal)
  • Cost per Watt: $2.71 per watt, down 5% year-over-year;
  • Asset Financing in Q4 2015: $2.40 per watt.
  • As of December 31, 2015, unrestricted Cash and Investments totaled $394 million, as compared to $418 million on September 30, 2015. The quarterly decline in cash of $137 million.
  • Residential has consistently performed above expectations over the last year, and missed guidance largely on commercial installations.
  • Going forward, plan on removing from guidance any large projects with construction deadlines late in the quarter.

Guidance

• Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of ($2.65)-($2.55) vs. ($2.36) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
• Looking ahead to 2016, continue to target 1.25 GW Installed. Though the ITC extension certainly provides more tailwinds to growth, the primary focus is goal of generating positive cash by year-end.
• "Though we are projecting a lower rate of growth in 2016 than in years past, our guidance still implies over 40% annual growth in 2016, a rate of growth that would be the envy of most industries and companies in this country".
• For Q1 2016 expect to install 180 MW, representing growth of 18% y/y, and a 34% decline as compared to Q4 2015. This represents a higher-than-usual seasonal slowdown that have historically experienced after strong fourth quarters
• Expect installations-and cash generation-to ramp throughout 2016.
• For Q1 2016, expect GAAP Operating Expenses of $230-240 mln.