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Friday, August 24, 2012

Options trade idea : butterfly strategy PCLN $592

Priceline dropped $117 on earnings August 8. Since then, it has been behaving and more range bound between 560 and 600. I am looking at a weekly strategy with a great risk reward to play this more range bound market in PCLN. 

Trade:   Butterfly Strategy  PCLN  $592    
   
Buy 1 PCLN weekly August  605 call   
sell 1 PCLN weekly August  595 call       
buy 1 PCLN weekly August  580 put     
sell 1 PCLN weekly August  590 put           
                                  Total Credit  $7.50   (using weekly option that came out today and expire next  week, Friday Aug 31).  Commissions are not included.

 ** weekly **


Why I like this strategy?  Great risk reward: I can make maximum $750 with total risk of $250. It’s also going into a holiday weekend (Labor Day is Monday after Aug 31 expiration), so maybe stock movement slows down next week.   

What’s my Plan?   Would look to take this trade off for a profit of 20-25%  probably Monday.

What price level Monday will PCLN need to be around to get your profit?   582-600

At what price level Monday should I get concerned with this spread?  Under $580 or over $605 would start to get me concerned enough to either adjust or exit this trade.

What if I faint during the time I have this spread position on, and Priceline goes to zero?  Remember, this is a great risk/reward trade and my maximum loss is $250.

What are my breakevens if I hold the entire position until Friday, 8/31?
$582.50 (590 put less $7.50) and $602.50 (short 595 call plus $7.50), excluding commissions.

What do I like best about trading Weekly's?  First, stay small. I have a very short term outlook, and with Weekly’s I can take advantage of accelerated time decay.

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